The value of aggregated high-resolution intraoperative data for predicting post-surgical infectious complications at two independent sites

Surgical procedures carry the risk of postoperative infectious complications, which can be severe, expensive, and morbid. A growing body of evidence indicates that high-resolution intraoperative data can be predictive of these complications. However, these studies are often contradictory in their findings as well as difficult to replicate, suggesting that these predictive models may be capturing institutional artifacts. In this work, data and models from two independent institutions, Mayo Clinic and University of Minnesota-affiliated Fairview Health Services, were directly compared using a common set of definitions for the variables and outcomes. We built perioperative risk models for seven infectious post-surgical complications at each site to assess the value of intraoperative variables. Models were internally validated. We found that including intraoperative variables significantly improved the models' predictive performance at both sites for five out of seven complications. We also found that significant intraoperative variables were similar between the two sites for four of the seven complications. Our results suggest that intraoperative variables can be related to the underlying physiology for some infectious complications.