Prospective validation of the Baylor bleeding score for predicting the likelihood of rebleeding after endoscopic hemostasis of peptic ulcers

Endoscopic therapy is effective in securing hemostasis for bleeding ulcers, but bleeding recurs in 10% to 30% of patients. Prospective identification of patients at increased risk for rebleeding is requisite to reducing rebleeding rates. We previously developed a three-component scoring system that identifies patients at increased risk for rebleeding. In the present study, we prospectively validated our scoring system. Forty-seven men ranging in age from 23 to 95 years in whom endoscopic therapy for bleeding ulcers was successful were studied. Patients with pre-endoscopy scores greater than 5 or post- endoscopy scores greater than 10 were stratified as high-risk, and patients with pre-endoscopy scores of 5 or less and post-endoscopy scores of 10 or less as low-risk. Twenty-six patients were categorized as high-risk and 19 as low-risk. All patients were followed until discharged from the hospital. The rebleeding rate for high-risk patients was 31% (8 of 26), compared with 0 for low-risk patients (p < .05). We conclude that our scoring system accurately predicts patients at increased risk for rebleeding after successful endoscopic therapy of bleeding ulcers. (Gastrointest Endosc 1995;41:561-5.)