Predictors of surgical outcomes

The foundation of surgical decision-making has always been the risk-to-benefit ratio. Traditionally, the risks of complications and death, predicted by comorbid conditions, have been balanced against the benefits of disease management; that is, relief of symptoms or prevention of disease-related complications. Increasingly, patient preference and quality-of-life outcomes are entering into the decision-making process even at the price of modest increases in risk. In addition, the role of the surgeon as a predictor of outcomes has come under close scrutiny and has been demonstrated as having an effect on a number of important surgical outcomes. In the future, our methods for analyzing and reporting surgical outcomes will have to accommodate new predictors.