Predictors and progression of aortic stenosis in patients with preserved left ventricular ejection fraction

We aimed to characterize the hemodynamic progression of aortic stenosis (AS) in a contemporary unselected cohort of patients with preserved left ventricular ejection fraction. Current guidelines recommend echocardiographic surveillance of hemodynamic progression. However, limited data exist on the expected rate of progression and whether clinical variables are associated with accelerated progression in contemporarily managed patients with AS. We conducted a retrospective analysis of patients presenting with AS and explored the trajectory of AS mean gradient over time using generalized estimating equations and fit a longitudinal linear regression model with adjustment for baseline clinical variables. A total of 1,558 patients (median age 72; interquartile range 65 to 79) having mild (n = 982), moderate (n = 363), or severe AS (n = 213) were included. In patients with mild AS at baseline (n = 983), 303 (31%) had progressed to moderate/severe AS/AVR within 5 years of the index echo. In patients with moderate AS, 159 of 363 (44%) had progressed to severe AS/AVR within 2 years of the index echo. The annual change in mean gradient was dependent on baseline AS severity. Average annual increases in mean gradient were 6.8% (95% confidence interval 6.0 to 7.6) and 7.1% (95% confidence interval 4.8 to 9.3) in patients with mild and moderate AS, respectively. In the subset of patients with mild AS at baseline, age (p = 0.0310) and gender (p = 0.0270) had significant interaction with change in mean gradient over time. In patients with moderate AS, age (p <0.0001), gender (p = 0.0346), renal dysfunction (p = 0.0036), and hyperlipidemia (p = 0.0010) demonstrated significant interaction with change in mean gradient over time. In conclusion, although average disease progression was slower than previously reported, a significant proportion of patients with mild and moderate AS progressed to higher grades within the currently recommended time windows for echocardiographic follow-up.