Outcome of 622 adults with asymptomatic, hemodynamically significant aortic stenosis during prolonged follow-up

Patricia A. Pellikka, Maurice E. Sarano, Rick A. Nishimura, Joseph F. Malouf, Kent R. Bailey, Christopher G. Scott, Marion E. Barnes, A. Jamil Tajik

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

559 Scopus citations


Background - This study assessed the long-term outcome of a large, asymptomatic population with hemodynamically significant aortic stenosis (AS). Methods and Results - We identified 622 patients with isolated, asymptomatic AS and peak systolic velocity ≥4 m/s by Doppler echocardiography who did not undergo surgery at the initial evaluation and obtained follow-up (5.4±4.0 years) in all. Mean age (±SD) was 72±11 years; there were 384 (62%) men. The probability of remaining free of cardiac symptoms while unoperated was 82%, 67%, and 33% at 1, 2, and 5 years, respectively. Aortic valve area and left ventricular hypertrophy predicted symptom development. During follow-up, 352 (57%) patients were referred for aortic valve surgery and 265 (43%) patients died, including cardiac death in 117 (19%). The 1-, 2-, and 5-year probabilities of remaining free of surgery or cardiac death were 80%, 63%, and 25%, respectively. Multivariate predictors of all-cause mortality were age (hazard ratio [HR], 1.05; P<0.0001), chronic renal failure (HR, 2.41; P=0.004), inactivity (HR, 2.00; P=0.001), and aortic valve velocity (HR, 1.46; P=0.03). Sudden death without preceding symptoms occurred in 11 (4.1%) of 270 unoperated patients. Patients with peak velocity ≥4.5 m/s had a higher likelihood of developing symptoms (relative risk, 1.34) or having surgery or cardiac death (relative risk, 1.48). Conclusions - Most patients with asymptomatic, hemodynamically significant AS will develop symptoms within 5 years. Sudden death occurs in ≈1%/y. Age, chronic renal failure, inactivity, and aortic valve velocity are independently predictive of all-cause mortality.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)3290-3295
Number of pages6
Issue number24
StatePublished - Jun 21 2005


  • Aortic stenosis
  • Echocardiography
  • Surgery
  • Survival
  • Valves

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Cardiology and Cardiovascular Medicine
  • Physiology (medical)


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