Association of BMI, comorbidities and all-cause mortality by using a baseline mortality risk model

Objective The association of body mass index (BMI) and all-cause mortality is controversial, frequently referred to as a paradox. Whether the cause is metabolic factors or statistical biases is still controversial. We assessed the association of BMI and all-cause mortality considering a wide range of comorbidities and baseline mortality risk. Methods Retrospective cohort study of Olmsted County residents with at least one BMI measurement between 2000–2005, clinical data in the electronic health record and minimum 8 year followup or death within this time. The cohort was categorized based on baseline mortality risk: Low, Medium, Medium-high, High and Very-high. All-cause mortality was assessed for BMI intervals of 5 and 0.5 Kg/m². Results Of 39,739 subjects (average age 52.6, range 18–89; 38.1% male) 11.86% died during 8-year follow-up. The 8-year all-cause mortality risk had a “U” shape with a flat nadir in all the risk groups. Extreme BMI showed higher risk (BMI <15 = 36.4%, 15 to <20 = 15.4% and ≥45 = 13.7%), while intermediate BMI categories showed a plateau between 10.6 and 12.5%. The increased risk attributed to baseline risk and comorbidities was more obvious than the risk based on BMI increase within the same risk groups. Conclusions There is a complex association between BMI and all-cause mortality when evaluated including comorbidities and baseline mortality risk. In general, comorbidities are better predictors.