Abstract
Objective: To describe a natural history model for primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC) that is based on routine clinical findings and test results and eliminates the need for liver biopsy. Patients and Methods: Using the Cox proportional hazards analysis, we created a survival model based on 405 patients with PSC from 5 clinical centers. Independent validation of the model was undertaken by applying it to 124 patients who were not included in the model creation. Results: Based on the multivariate analysis of 405 patients, a risk score was defined by the following formula: R = 0.03 (age [y]) + 0.54 log(e) (bilirubin [mg/dL]) + 0.54 log(e) (aspartate aminotransferase [U/L]) + 1.24 (variceal bleeding [0/1]) - 0.84 (albumin [g/dL]). The risk score was used to obtain survival estimates up to 4 years of follow-up. Application of this model to an independent group of 124 patients showed good correlation between estimated and actual survival. Conclusions: A new model to estimate patient survival in PSC includes more reproducible variables (age, bilirubin, albumin, aspartate aminotransferase, and history of variceal bleeding), has accuracy comparable to previous models, and obviates the need for a liver biopsy.
| Original language | English (US) |
|---|---|
| Pages (from-to) | 688-694 |
| Number of pages | 7 |
| Journal | Mayo Clinic Proceedings |
| Volume | 75 |
| Issue number | 7 |
| State | Published - 2000 |
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ASJC Scopus subject areas
- Medicine(all)
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A revised natural history model for primary sclerosing cholangitis. / Kim, W. Ray; Therneau, Terry M; Wiesner, Russell H.; Poterucha, John J.; Benson, Joanne T.; Malinchoc, Michael; La Russo, Nicholas F; Lindor, Keith D.; Dickson, E. Rolland.
In: Mayo Clinic Proceedings, Vol. 75, No. 7, 2000, p. 688-694.Research output: Contribution to journal › Article
}
TY - JOUR
T1 - A revised natural history model for primary sclerosing cholangitis
AU - Kim, W. Ray
AU - Therneau, Terry M
AU - Wiesner, Russell H.
AU - Poterucha, John J.
AU - Benson, Joanne T.
AU - Malinchoc, Michael
AU - La Russo, Nicholas F
AU - Lindor, Keith D.
AU - Dickson, E. Rolland
PY - 2000
Y1 - 2000
N2 - Objective: To describe a natural history model for primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC) that is based on routine clinical findings and test results and eliminates the need for liver biopsy. Patients and Methods: Using the Cox proportional hazards analysis, we created a survival model based on 405 patients with PSC from 5 clinical centers. Independent validation of the model was undertaken by applying it to 124 patients who were not included in the model creation. Results: Based on the multivariate analysis of 405 patients, a risk score was defined by the following formula: R = 0.03 (age [y]) + 0.54 log(e) (bilirubin [mg/dL]) + 0.54 log(e) (aspartate aminotransferase [U/L]) + 1.24 (variceal bleeding [0/1]) - 0.84 (albumin [g/dL]). The risk score was used to obtain survival estimates up to 4 years of follow-up. Application of this model to an independent group of 124 patients showed good correlation between estimated and actual survival. Conclusions: A new model to estimate patient survival in PSC includes more reproducible variables (age, bilirubin, albumin, aspartate aminotransferase, and history of variceal bleeding), has accuracy comparable to previous models, and obviates the need for a liver biopsy.
AB - Objective: To describe a natural history model for primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC) that is based on routine clinical findings and test results and eliminates the need for liver biopsy. Patients and Methods: Using the Cox proportional hazards analysis, we created a survival model based on 405 patients with PSC from 5 clinical centers. Independent validation of the model was undertaken by applying it to 124 patients who were not included in the model creation. Results: Based on the multivariate analysis of 405 patients, a risk score was defined by the following formula: R = 0.03 (age [y]) + 0.54 log(e) (bilirubin [mg/dL]) + 0.54 log(e) (aspartate aminotransferase [U/L]) + 1.24 (variceal bleeding [0/1]) - 0.84 (albumin [g/dL]). The risk score was used to obtain survival estimates up to 4 years of follow-up. Application of this model to an independent group of 124 patients showed good correlation between estimated and actual survival. Conclusions: A new model to estimate patient survival in PSC includes more reproducible variables (age, bilirubin, albumin, aspartate aminotransferase, and history of variceal bleeding), has accuracy comparable to previous models, and obviates the need for a liver biopsy.
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M3 - Article
C2 - 10907383
AN - SCOPUS:0033923645
VL - 75
SP - 688
EP - 694
JO - Mayo Clinic Proceedings
JF - Mayo Clinic Proceedings
SN - 0025-6196
IS - 7
ER -