TY - JOUR
T1 - Long‐term fracture prediction by bone mineral assessed at different skeletal sites
AU - Melton, L. Joseph
AU - Atkinson, Elizabeth J.
AU - O'Fallon, W. Michael
AU - Wahner, Heinz W.
AU - Riggs, B. Lawrence
PY - 1993/10
Y1 - 1993/10
N2 - Bone mineral density (BMD) was measured at the lumbar spine and cervical and intertrochanteric regions of the proximal femur by dual‐photon absorptiometry and bone mineral content was assessed at the distal and midradius by single‐photon absorptiometry in an age‐stratified random sample of 304 Rochester, Minnesota women aged 30–94 years. Over follow‐up extending to 10 years (median 8.3 years), 93 women experienced 163 new fractures. After adjusting for age, these bone mineral measurements predicted the likelihood of any incident fracture due to moderate trauma, with relative hazards varying from 1.4 to 1.6 per SD decrease in baseline bone mineral. A 1 SD decrease in lumbar spine BMD increased the risk of a new vertebral fracture comparably to a 17 year increase in age; a 1 SD decrease in femoral BMD was comparable to a 13–14 year increase in age on the risk of a hip fracture. We conclude that bone mineral measurements made at a variety of skeletal sites can predict the occurrence for at least 8–10 years of moderate trauma fractures of the sort that might be related to osteoporosis.
AB - Bone mineral density (BMD) was measured at the lumbar spine and cervical and intertrochanteric regions of the proximal femur by dual‐photon absorptiometry and bone mineral content was assessed at the distal and midradius by single‐photon absorptiometry in an age‐stratified random sample of 304 Rochester, Minnesota women aged 30–94 years. Over follow‐up extending to 10 years (median 8.3 years), 93 women experienced 163 new fractures. After adjusting for age, these bone mineral measurements predicted the likelihood of any incident fracture due to moderate trauma, with relative hazards varying from 1.4 to 1.6 per SD decrease in baseline bone mineral. A 1 SD decrease in lumbar spine BMD increased the risk of a new vertebral fracture comparably to a 17 year increase in age; a 1 SD decrease in femoral BMD was comparable to a 13–14 year increase in age on the risk of a hip fracture. We conclude that bone mineral measurements made at a variety of skeletal sites can predict the occurrence for at least 8–10 years of moderate trauma fractures of the sort that might be related to osteoporosis.
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U2 - 10.1002/jbmr.5650081010
DO - 10.1002/jbmr.5650081010
M3 - Article
C2 - 8256660
AN - SCOPUS:0027525577
SN - 0884-0431
VL - 8
SP - 1227
EP - 1233
JO - Journal of Bone and Mineral Research
JF - Journal of Bone and Mineral Research
IS - 10
ER -