Validity of Adjuvant! Online in older patients with stage III colon cancer based on 2967 patients from the ACCENT database

Demetris Papamichael, Lindsay A. Renfro, Christiana Matthaiou, Greg Yothers, Leonard Saltz, Katherine A. Guthrie, Eric Van Cutsem, Hans Joachim Schmoll, Roberto Labianca, Thierry André, Michael O'Connell, Steven Robert Alberts, Daniel G. Haller, Panteleimon Kountourakis, Daniel J. Sargent

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

3 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Background: Adjuvant! Online is a tool used for clinical decision making in patients with early stage colon cancer. As details of the tool's construction are not published, the ability of Adjuvant! Online to accurately predict outcomes for older patients (age 70. +) with node positive colon cancer receiving adjuvant chemotherapy is unclear. Methods: Individual data from older patients with stage III colon cancer who enrolled into multiple trials within the ACCENT database were entered into the Adjuvant! Online program to obtain predicted probabilities of 5-year overall survival (OS) and recurrence-free survival (RFS). Median predictions were compared with known rates. As co-morbidities were not known for ACCENT patients, but required for calculator entry, patients were assumed to have either "minor" or "average for age" co-morbidities. Results: 2967 older patients from 10 randomized studies were included. When "minor" co-morbidities were assumed, the median predicted 5-year OS rate of 64% nearly matched the actual rate of 65%; when "average for age" co-morbidities were assumed, the median prediction dropped to 58%, outside the CI for the actual rate. On the other hand, assuming "minor" co-morbidities gave a median 5-year RFS prediction of 62%, outside the 95% CI for the actual rate of 58%, while assuming "average for age" co-morbidities yielded a better median prediction of 57%. Conclusion: Adjuvant! Online is reasonably accurate overall for predicting outcomes in older trial patients with stage III colon cancer, though accuracy may differ between 5-year RFS and 5-year OS predictions when a fixed degree of co-morbidities is assumed.

Original languageEnglish (US)
JournalJournal of Geriatric Oncology
DOIs
StateAccepted/In press - Mar 16 2016

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Colonic Neoplasms
Databases
Morbidity
Survival
Recurrence
Adjuvant Chemotherapy
Survival Rate

Keywords

  • ACCENT
  • Adjuvant
  • Colorectal
  • Older

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Geriatrics and Gerontology
  • Oncology

Cite this

Papamichael, D., Renfro, L. A., Matthaiou, C., Yothers, G., Saltz, L., Guthrie, K. A., ... Sargent, D. J. (Accepted/In press). Validity of Adjuvant! Online in older patients with stage III colon cancer based on 2967 patients from the ACCENT database. Journal of Geriatric Oncology. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jgo.2016.07.002

Validity of Adjuvant! Online in older patients with stage III colon cancer based on 2967 patients from the ACCENT database. / Papamichael, Demetris; Renfro, Lindsay A.; Matthaiou, Christiana; Yothers, Greg; Saltz, Leonard; Guthrie, Katherine A.; Van Cutsem, Eric; Schmoll, Hans Joachim; Labianca, Roberto; André, Thierry; O'Connell, Michael; Alberts, Steven Robert; Haller, Daniel G.; Kountourakis, Panteleimon; Sargent, Daniel J.

In: Journal of Geriatric Oncology, 16.03.2016.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Papamichael, D, Renfro, LA, Matthaiou, C, Yothers, G, Saltz, L, Guthrie, KA, Van Cutsem, E, Schmoll, HJ, Labianca, R, André, T, O'Connell, M, Alberts, SR, Haller, DG, Kountourakis, P & Sargent, DJ 2016, 'Validity of Adjuvant! Online in older patients with stage III colon cancer based on 2967 patients from the ACCENT database', Journal of Geriatric Oncology. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jgo.2016.07.002
Papamichael, Demetris ; Renfro, Lindsay A. ; Matthaiou, Christiana ; Yothers, Greg ; Saltz, Leonard ; Guthrie, Katherine A. ; Van Cutsem, Eric ; Schmoll, Hans Joachim ; Labianca, Roberto ; André, Thierry ; O'Connell, Michael ; Alberts, Steven Robert ; Haller, Daniel G. ; Kountourakis, Panteleimon ; Sargent, Daniel J. / Validity of Adjuvant! Online in older patients with stage III colon cancer based on 2967 patients from the ACCENT database. In: Journal of Geriatric Oncology. 2016.
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abstract = "Background: Adjuvant! Online is a tool used for clinical decision making in patients with early stage colon cancer. As details of the tool's construction are not published, the ability of Adjuvant! Online to accurately predict outcomes for older patients (age 70. +) with node positive colon cancer receiving adjuvant chemotherapy is unclear. Methods: Individual data from older patients with stage III colon cancer who enrolled into multiple trials within the ACCENT database were entered into the Adjuvant! Online program to obtain predicted probabilities of 5-year overall survival (OS) and recurrence-free survival (RFS). Median predictions were compared with known rates. As co-morbidities were not known for ACCENT patients, but required for calculator entry, patients were assumed to have either {"}minor{"} or {"}average for age{"} co-morbidities. Results: 2967 older patients from 10 randomized studies were included. When {"}minor{"} co-morbidities were assumed, the median predicted 5-year OS rate of 64{\%} nearly matched the actual rate of 65{\%}; when {"}average for age{"} co-morbidities were assumed, the median prediction dropped to 58{\%}, outside the CI for the actual rate. On the other hand, assuming {"}minor{"} co-morbidities gave a median 5-year RFS prediction of 62{\%}, outside the 95{\%} CI for the actual rate of 58{\%}, while assuming {"}average for age{"} co-morbidities yielded a better median prediction of 57{\%}. Conclusion: Adjuvant! Online is reasonably accurate overall for predicting outcomes in older trial patients with stage III colon cancer, though accuracy may differ between 5-year RFS and 5-year OS predictions when a fixed degree of co-morbidities is assumed.",
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AU - Papamichael, Demetris

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AU - Matthaiou, Christiana

AU - Yothers, Greg

AU - Saltz, Leonard

AU - Guthrie, Katherine A.

AU - Van Cutsem, Eric

AU - Schmoll, Hans Joachim

AU - Labianca, Roberto

AU - André, Thierry

AU - O'Connell, Michael

AU - Alberts, Steven Robert

AU - Haller, Daniel G.

AU - Kountourakis, Panteleimon

AU - Sargent, Daniel J.

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N2 - Background: Adjuvant! Online is a tool used for clinical decision making in patients with early stage colon cancer. As details of the tool's construction are not published, the ability of Adjuvant! Online to accurately predict outcomes for older patients (age 70. +) with node positive colon cancer receiving adjuvant chemotherapy is unclear. Methods: Individual data from older patients with stage III colon cancer who enrolled into multiple trials within the ACCENT database were entered into the Adjuvant! Online program to obtain predicted probabilities of 5-year overall survival (OS) and recurrence-free survival (RFS). Median predictions were compared with known rates. As co-morbidities were not known for ACCENT patients, but required for calculator entry, patients were assumed to have either "minor" or "average for age" co-morbidities. Results: 2967 older patients from 10 randomized studies were included. When "minor" co-morbidities were assumed, the median predicted 5-year OS rate of 64% nearly matched the actual rate of 65%; when "average for age" co-morbidities were assumed, the median prediction dropped to 58%, outside the CI for the actual rate. On the other hand, assuming "minor" co-morbidities gave a median 5-year RFS prediction of 62%, outside the 95% CI for the actual rate of 58%, while assuming "average for age" co-morbidities yielded a better median prediction of 57%. Conclusion: Adjuvant! Online is reasonably accurate overall for predicting outcomes in older trial patients with stage III colon cancer, though accuracy may differ between 5-year RFS and 5-year OS predictions when a fixed degree of co-morbidities is assumed.

AB - Background: Adjuvant! Online is a tool used for clinical decision making in patients with early stage colon cancer. As details of the tool's construction are not published, the ability of Adjuvant! Online to accurately predict outcomes for older patients (age 70. +) with node positive colon cancer receiving adjuvant chemotherapy is unclear. Methods: Individual data from older patients with stage III colon cancer who enrolled into multiple trials within the ACCENT database were entered into the Adjuvant! Online program to obtain predicted probabilities of 5-year overall survival (OS) and recurrence-free survival (RFS). Median predictions were compared with known rates. As co-morbidities were not known for ACCENT patients, but required for calculator entry, patients were assumed to have either "minor" or "average for age" co-morbidities. Results: 2967 older patients from 10 randomized studies were included. When "minor" co-morbidities were assumed, the median predicted 5-year OS rate of 64% nearly matched the actual rate of 65%; when "average for age" co-morbidities were assumed, the median prediction dropped to 58%, outside the CI for the actual rate. On the other hand, assuming "minor" co-morbidities gave a median 5-year RFS prediction of 62%, outside the 95% CI for the actual rate of 58%, while assuming "average for age" co-morbidities yielded a better median prediction of 57%. Conclusion: Adjuvant! Online is reasonably accurate overall for predicting outcomes in older trial patients with stage III colon cancer, though accuracy may differ between 5-year RFS and 5-year OS predictions when a fixed degree of co-morbidities is assumed.

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