The natural history of multiple sclerosis: A geographically based study. 3. Multivariate analysis of predictive factors and models of outcome

Brian G Weinshenker, G. P A Rice, J. H. Noseworthy, W. Carriere, J. Baskerville, G. C. Ebers

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

355 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

A multivariate hierarchical analysis was used to assess the significance of several demographic and clinical factors in multiple sclerosis patients. We used the time to reach level 6 on the disability status scale (DSS) of Kurtzke as endpoint. Several factors at presentation were significantly associated with an adverse outcome including older age at onset, male sex, cerebellar involvement or insidious onset of a motor deficit as first symptom. Factors ascertained later which were associated significantly with a worse outcome, even after controlling for those previously mentioned, included persisting deficits in brainstem, cerebellar or cerebral systems, a higher frequency of attacks in the first 2 yrs after onset of disease, a short first interattack interval and higher DSS at 2 yrs and 5 yrs from onset. An analysis similar to multiple regression was used to generate predictive models which permit the calculation of the median time to DSS 6 for patients with a given set of covariates. The goodness of fit of these models to the data and their predictive accuracy are discussed.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)1045-1056
Number of pages12
JournalBrain
Volume114
Issue number2
StatePublished - Apr 1991
Externally publishedYes

Fingerprint

Multiple Sclerosis
Multivariate Analysis
Disability
sclerosis
natural history
multivariate analysis
brain stem
endpoints
Age of Onset
signs and symptoms (animals and humans)
Brain Stem
demographic statistics
Multiple Regression
Demography
Predictive Model
Goodness of fit
Covariates
gender
Attack
Model

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Neuroscience(all)
  • Statistics, Probability and Uncertainty
  • Applied Mathematics
  • Mathematics(all)
  • Statistics and Probability
  • Agricultural and Biological Sciences (miscellaneous)
  • Clinical Neurology

Cite this

Weinshenker, B. G., Rice, G. P. A., Noseworthy, J. H., Carriere, W., Baskerville, J., & Ebers, G. C. (1991). The natural history of multiple sclerosis: A geographically based study. 3. Multivariate analysis of predictive factors and models of outcome. Brain, 114(2), 1045-1056.

The natural history of multiple sclerosis : A geographically based study. 3. Multivariate analysis of predictive factors and models of outcome. / Weinshenker, Brian G; Rice, G. P A; Noseworthy, J. H.; Carriere, W.; Baskerville, J.; Ebers, G. C.

In: Brain, Vol. 114, No. 2, 04.1991, p. 1045-1056.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Weinshenker, BG, Rice, GPA, Noseworthy, JH, Carriere, W, Baskerville, J & Ebers, GC 1991, 'The natural history of multiple sclerosis: A geographically based study. 3. Multivariate analysis of predictive factors and models of outcome', Brain, vol. 114, no. 2, pp. 1045-1056.
Weinshenker, Brian G ; Rice, G. P A ; Noseworthy, J. H. ; Carriere, W. ; Baskerville, J. ; Ebers, G. C. / The natural history of multiple sclerosis : A geographically based study. 3. Multivariate analysis of predictive factors and models of outcome. In: Brain. 1991 ; Vol. 114, No. 2. pp. 1045-1056.
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