The modified fontan operation. An analysis of risk factors for early postoperative death or takedown in 702 consecutive patients from one institution

To better understand risk factors associated with early postoperative death or failure, we reviewed our entire experience with 702 consecutive patients who had the modified Fontan operation at the Mayo Clinic between October 1973 and December 1989. The event rate for takedown of repair or death during the initial hospitalization or within 30 days of the operation was 14.8% (successful takedown of the repair, n = 6; death, n = 98). To identify variables associated with early death or Fontan takedown, we analyzed 33 clinical and hemodynamic variables in a univariate and multivariate manner. On the basis of a stepwise logistic discriminant analysis, patients who were younger and operated on before 1980 with a higher preoperative pulmonary artery mean pressure, asplenia, higher intraoperative (after Fontan operation) right atrial pressure, longer aortic crossclamp time, and pulmonary artery ligation were more likely to have the outcome event of interest ( p values < 0.05). A new variable, corrected pulmonary artery pressure (that is, mean preoperative pulmonary artery pressure divided by the ratio of pulmonary to systemic flow if the ratio of pulmonary to systemic flow is greater than 1.0), was significantly associated with the outcome event univariately ( p = 0.002), but was no more predictive than the preoperative pulmonary artery mean pressure. Variables less predictive of the outcome event in this analysis included multiple prior operations, polysplenia syndrome, complex anatomy other than asplenia syndrome, and systemic atrioventricular valve regurgitation. These results represent the largest single-institution review of the Fontan operation and suggest that some anatomic and hemodynamic variables previously predictive of poor early outcome have been nullified by current operative methods. (J THORAC CARDIOVASC SURG 1995;109:1237-43).