TY - JOUR
T1 - State Level Firearm Concealed-Carry Legislation and Rates of Homicide and Other Violent Crime
AU - Hamill, Mark E.
AU - Hernandez, Matthew C.
AU - Bailey, Kent R.
AU - Zielinski, Martin D.
AU - Matos, Miguel A.
AU - Schiller, Henry J.
N1 - Funding Information:
This study demonstrates no statistical association between the liberalization of state level firearm carry legislation over 3 decades and the rates of homicides, firearm homicides, or other violent crime, using a rigorous statistical model. Given the inconsistencies in previous work, this study underscores the need for further research that evaluates the causes of firearms violence. However, as stated in a recent publication from the Institute of Medicine and National Research Council, “The evidence generated by implementing a public health research agenda can enable the development of sound policies that support both the rights and the responsibilities central to gun ownership in the US. In the absence of this research, policy makers will be left to debate controversial policies without scientifically sound evidence about their potential effects.” 51 Based on our data, policy efforts aimed at injury prevention and the reduction of firearm-related violence should likely investigate other targets for potential intervention. However, in the end, it is clear that further high-quality research is needed to help our society make rational decisions to help minimize violence and loss of life.
Publisher Copyright:
© 2018 American College of Surgeons
PY - 2019/1
Y1 - 2019/1
N2 - Background: Over the last 30 years, public opinion and state level legislation regarding the concealed-carry of firearms have shifted dramatically. Previous studies of potential effects have yielded mixed results, making policy recommendations difficult. We investigated whether liberalization of state level concealed-carry legislation was associated with a change in the rates of homicide or other violent crime. Study Design: Data on violent crime and homicide rates were collected from the US Department of Justice Uniform Crime Reporting Program (UCR) and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) over 30 years, from 1986 to 2015. State level concealed-carry legislation was evaluated each study year on a scale including “no carry,” “may issue,” “shall issue,” and “unrestricted carry.” Data were analyzed using general multiple linear regression models with the log event rate as the dependent variable, and an autoregressive correlation structure was assumed with generalized estimating equation (GEE) estimates for standard errors. Results: During the study period, all states moved to adopt some form of concealed-carry legislation, with a trend toward less restrictive legislation. After adjusting for state and year, there was no significant association between shifts from restrictive to nonrestrictive carry legislation on violent crime and public health indicators. Adjusting further for poverty and unemployment did not significantly influence the results. Conclusions: This study demonstrated no statistically significant association between the liberalization of state level firearm carry legislation over the last 30 years and the rates of homicides or other violent crime. Policy efforts aimed at injury prevention and the reduction of firearm-related violence should likely investigate other targets for potential intervention.
AB - Background: Over the last 30 years, public opinion and state level legislation regarding the concealed-carry of firearms have shifted dramatically. Previous studies of potential effects have yielded mixed results, making policy recommendations difficult. We investigated whether liberalization of state level concealed-carry legislation was associated with a change in the rates of homicide or other violent crime. Study Design: Data on violent crime and homicide rates were collected from the US Department of Justice Uniform Crime Reporting Program (UCR) and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) over 30 years, from 1986 to 2015. State level concealed-carry legislation was evaluated each study year on a scale including “no carry,” “may issue,” “shall issue,” and “unrestricted carry.” Data were analyzed using general multiple linear regression models with the log event rate as the dependent variable, and an autoregressive correlation structure was assumed with generalized estimating equation (GEE) estimates for standard errors. Results: During the study period, all states moved to adopt some form of concealed-carry legislation, with a trend toward less restrictive legislation. After adjusting for state and year, there was no significant association between shifts from restrictive to nonrestrictive carry legislation on violent crime and public health indicators. Adjusting further for poverty and unemployment did not significantly influence the results. Conclusions: This study demonstrated no statistically significant association between the liberalization of state level firearm carry legislation over the last 30 years and the rates of homicides or other violent crime. Policy efforts aimed at injury prevention and the reduction of firearm-related violence should likely investigate other targets for potential intervention.
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U2 - 10.1016/j.jamcollsurg.2018.08.694
DO - 10.1016/j.jamcollsurg.2018.08.694
M3 - Article
C2 - 30359832
AN - SCOPUS:85058910617
SN - 1072-7515
VL - 228
SP - 1
EP - 8
JO - Surgery Gynecology and Obstetrics
JF - Surgery Gynecology and Obstetrics
IS - 1
ER -