Retrospective validation of acute heart failure risk stratification in the emergency department

Background: Heart Failure (HF) is a primary diagnosis for hospital admission from the Emergency Department (ED), although not all patients require hospitalization. The Emergency Heart Failure Mortality Risk Grade (EHMRG) estimates 7-day mortality in patients with acute HF in ED settings, but further validation is needed in the United States (US). Objectives: To validate EHMRG scores by risk-stratifying patients with acute HF in a large tertiary healthcare center in the US and analyze outcome measures to determine if EHMRG risk scores safely identify low-risk groups that may be discharged or managed in ED observation units (EDOUs). Methods: A retrospective cohort analysis of 304 patients with acute HF presenting to an ED at a large, tertiary healthcare center was completed. EHMRG scores were calculated to stratify patients according to published thresholds. Mortality and major adverse cardiac event (MACE) rates were analyzed. Results: No deaths occurred in very low and low-risk EHMRG groups at 7 days post discharge. 30-day mortality was significantly less in the lower risk groups (3.1%) when compared to all other patients (11.1%). MACE rates at 30 days in the very low risk group (15%) were significantly less when compared to all other patients (31.3%). Hospitalizations occurred in 23.4% of patients in lower risk groups. Conclusions: ED risk stratification with EHMRG differentiates high-risk patients requiring hospitalization from lower risk patients who can be safely managed in alternative settings with good outcomes. Data supports improved pathways for patients with acute HF during a time of high hospital volumes.