Rates and predictors of progression to esophageal carcinoma in a large population-based Barrett's esophagus cohort

Background and Aims Rates of progression to esophageal adenocarcinoma in subjects with Barrett's esophagus (BE) are lower than previously estimated. Identification of predictors of progression will enable risk stratification of BE subjects, potentially making current surveillance programs more efficient. We aimed to assess the potential of demographic and lifestyle factors, obesity, and medications in predicting progression in BE. Methods BE subjects were identified from the General Practice Research Database using validated diagnostic codes. BE subjects developing esophageal cancer (EC) 12 months after their index BE diagnosis were defined as progressors. Time-to-event analysis was used to assess the overall risk of progression to EC. Cox proportional hazards models and time-varying marginal structural models were used to assess predictors of progression. Results Included in the analysis were 9660 BE patients. The mean age (SD) of the study subjects was 63 (13.5) years; 62.6% were men. One hundred three subjects (1.1%) progressed to EC. The mean (SD) follow-up since initial diagnosis was 4.8 (3.3) years. The incidence of EC was 2.23 per 1000 person-years of follow-up. Increasing age, male gender, and being overweight (body mass index, 25-29.9) were found to be independent predictors of progression. When time-varying models were used, proton pump inhibitor (PPI) and statin use were protective against progression. Conclusions In this large population-based cohort of patients with BE, increasing age, male gender, and being overweight predicted progression to EC, whereas PPI and statin use were protective against EC development. These factors may aid in developing a risk score to predict the risk of progression and chemopreventive strategies in patients with BE.