Rate and Predictors of Interval Esophageal and Gastric Cancers after Esophagogastroduodenoscopy in the United States

Background and Aims: In the United States, little is known about the rates of interval upper gastrointestinal (GI) cancer (possibly missed out) after an esophagogastroduodenoscopy (EGD) is performed. Data from non-US studies reported interval cancer rates of 7-26%. We aimed to study the rate and predictors of interval upper GI cancers in the United States. Methods: Using the random 5% sample of Medicare beneficiaries in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results-Medicare linked database, we identified patients diagnosed with esophageal or gastric cancer during 2000-2007. EGD performed within 36 months prior to cancer diagnosis was identified using CPT codes. Cancers diagnosed 6-36 months after EGD were defined as interval (vs. detected) cancers. The chi-square test and the multivariate logistic model were used in statistical analysis. Results: Of 751 patients diagnosed with upper GI cancer, 52 patients (6.9%) were diagnosed with interval cancers 6-36 months after EGD. The rate of interval cancers was 5.5% (31/568) for gastroenterologists and 11.5% (21/183) for non-gastroenterologists (p < 0.01). In multivariate logistic regression, EGDs performed by gastroenterologists (vs. non-gastroenterologists: OR 0.46, 95% CI 0.25-0.83) and those in inpatient setting (vs. outpatient: OR 0.53, 95% CI 0.28-0.997) were associated with a lower likelihood of interval cancers. Sensitivity analyses limited to outpatient EGDs or interval cancers 6-30 months after EGDs led to similar results. Conclusions: The rate of interval cancers after EGD is the same as the rate of colonoscopy among Medicare patients in the United States. EGDs performed by gastroenterologists and in in-patient settings were associated with a lesser likelihood of interval cancers.