Abstract
BACKGROUND: Numeracy and Adjuvant! are 2 web-based calculators that are used widely to estimate the prognosis and potential benefit of adjuvant 5-fluorouracil (5-FU)-based therapy for patients with stage II and III colon cancer. In this study, the authors compared the predicted survival estimates from these models with the actual observed estimates in independent datasets that were derived from a population cohort and from clinical trials. METHODS: The population cohort was derived from the British Columbia Colorectal Cancer Outcomes Unit database, which identified referred patients with stage II and III colon cancer from 1995 to 1996 and from 1999 to 2003. Patients who were enrolled in North Central Cancer Trials Group (NCCTG) trials NCCTG 94651 and NCCTG 914653 were included in the trials dataset. Patient and disease data were used to predict 5-year relapse-free and overall survival using both tools. RESULTS: In the population-based dataset (N = 2033), Adjuvant! offered more reliable predictions of prognosis for patients who underwent surgery alone, but it had reliability similar to that of Numeracy for predicting the prognosis for patients who received adjuvant 5-FU. Both models tended to overestimate survival for patients with stage II disease who received 5-FU. In the trials dataset of patients who underwent and received 5-FU (N = 1729), Numeracy and Adjuvant! demonstrated similar performance and improved correctness. CONCLUSIONS: This independent validation analysis demonstrated that both Numeracy and Adjuvant! had similar predictive performance and acceptable reliability for patients with stage III disease. Survival outcomes of patients with stage II colon cancer who received adjuvant 5-FU were slightly lower than estimated by either model.
| Original language | English (US) |
|---|---|
| Pages (from-to) | 4155-4165 |
| Number of pages | 11 |
| Journal | Cancer |
| Volume | 117 |
| Issue number | 18 |
| DOIs | |
| State | Published - Sep 15 2011 |
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Keywords
- Adjuvant!
- colon cancer
- fluorouracil
- nomogram
- Numeracy
ASJC Scopus subject areas
- Cancer Research
- Oncology
Cite this
Prognostic web-based models for stage II and III colon cancer : A population and clinical trials-based validation of numeracy and adjuvant! online. / Gill, Sharlene; Loprinzi, Charles Lawrence; Kennecke, Hagen; Grothey, Axel F; Nelson, Garth; Woods, Ryan; Speers, Caroline; Alberts, Steven Robert; Bardia, Aditya; O'Connell, Michael J.; Sargent, Daniel J.
In: Cancer, Vol. 117, No. 18, 15.09.2011, p. 4155-4165.Research output: Contribution to journal › Article
}
TY - JOUR
T1 - Prognostic web-based models for stage II and III colon cancer
T2 - A population and clinical trials-based validation of numeracy and adjuvant! online
AU - Gill, Sharlene
AU - Loprinzi, Charles Lawrence
AU - Kennecke, Hagen
AU - Grothey, Axel F
AU - Nelson, Garth
AU - Woods, Ryan
AU - Speers, Caroline
AU - Alberts, Steven Robert
AU - Bardia, Aditya
AU - O'Connell, Michael J.
AU - Sargent, Daniel J.
PY - 2011/9/15
Y1 - 2011/9/15
N2 - BACKGROUND: Numeracy and Adjuvant! are 2 web-based calculators that are used widely to estimate the prognosis and potential benefit of adjuvant 5-fluorouracil (5-FU)-based therapy for patients with stage II and III colon cancer. In this study, the authors compared the predicted survival estimates from these models with the actual observed estimates in independent datasets that were derived from a population cohort and from clinical trials. METHODS: The population cohort was derived from the British Columbia Colorectal Cancer Outcomes Unit database, which identified referred patients with stage II and III colon cancer from 1995 to 1996 and from 1999 to 2003. Patients who were enrolled in North Central Cancer Trials Group (NCCTG) trials NCCTG 94651 and NCCTG 914653 were included in the trials dataset. Patient and disease data were used to predict 5-year relapse-free and overall survival using both tools. RESULTS: In the population-based dataset (N = 2033), Adjuvant! offered more reliable predictions of prognosis for patients who underwent surgery alone, but it had reliability similar to that of Numeracy for predicting the prognosis for patients who received adjuvant 5-FU. Both models tended to overestimate survival for patients with stage II disease who received 5-FU. In the trials dataset of patients who underwent and received 5-FU (N = 1729), Numeracy and Adjuvant! demonstrated similar performance and improved correctness. CONCLUSIONS: This independent validation analysis demonstrated that both Numeracy and Adjuvant! had similar predictive performance and acceptable reliability for patients with stage III disease. Survival outcomes of patients with stage II colon cancer who received adjuvant 5-FU were slightly lower than estimated by either model.
AB - BACKGROUND: Numeracy and Adjuvant! are 2 web-based calculators that are used widely to estimate the prognosis and potential benefit of adjuvant 5-fluorouracil (5-FU)-based therapy for patients with stage II and III colon cancer. In this study, the authors compared the predicted survival estimates from these models with the actual observed estimates in independent datasets that were derived from a population cohort and from clinical trials. METHODS: The population cohort was derived from the British Columbia Colorectal Cancer Outcomes Unit database, which identified referred patients with stage II and III colon cancer from 1995 to 1996 and from 1999 to 2003. Patients who were enrolled in North Central Cancer Trials Group (NCCTG) trials NCCTG 94651 and NCCTG 914653 were included in the trials dataset. Patient and disease data were used to predict 5-year relapse-free and overall survival using both tools. RESULTS: In the population-based dataset (N = 2033), Adjuvant! offered more reliable predictions of prognosis for patients who underwent surgery alone, but it had reliability similar to that of Numeracy for predicting the prognosis for patients who received adjuvant 5-FU. Both models tended to overestimate survival for patients with stage II disease who received 5-FU. In the trials dataset of patients who underwent and received 5-FU (N = 1729), Numeracy and Adjuvant! demonstrated similar performance and improved correctness. CONCLUSIONS: This independent validation analysis demonstrated that both Numeracy and Adjuvant! had similar predictive performance and acceptable reliability for patients with stage III disease. Survival outcomes of patients with stage II colon cancer who received adjuvant 5-FU were slightly lower than estimated by either model.
KW - Adjuvant!
KW - colon cancer
KW - fluorouracil
KW - nomogram
KW - Numeracy
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=80052472118&partnerID=8YFLogxK
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=80052472118&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1002/cncr.26003
DO - 10.1002/cncr.26003
M3 - Article
C2 - 21365628
AN - SCOPUS:80052472118
VL - 117
SP - 4155
EP - 4165
JO - Cancer
JF - Cancer
SN - 0008-543X
IS - 18
ER -