Prognostic value of exercise radionuclide angiography in a population-based cohort of patients with known or suspected coronary artery disease

Five hundred thirty-six residents of Olmsted County, Minnesota, who underwent supine rest and exercise radionuclide angiography because of known or suspected coronary artery disease, were followed for a median of 46 months to determine the prognostic value of exercise radionuclide angiography in a community population who generally did not undergo coronary angiography. There were 71 persons who experienced a new cardiac event (the initial events were cardiac death and nonfatal myocardial infarction in 26 and 45 persons, respectively). A proportional-hazards model identified 4 independent predictors of cardiac events: exercise ejection fraction (p < 0.001), exercise heart rate (p < 0.001), history of myocardial infarction (p = 0.01), and age (p = 0.04). Four-year infarct-free survival was 98% for the 152 patients with a peak exercise heart rate at or above the median (122 beats/min) and an exercise ejection fraction at or above the median (0.58). In the 150 patients with a peak exercise heart rate <122 beats/min and an exercise ejection fraction <0.58, 4-year infarct-free survival was 68%. When this population-based cohort was compared with a referral case series previously reported from our institution, these population-based patients were significantly more likely to be men, to have typical angina, to have higher exercise heart rates and exercise ejection fractions, and were less likely to be receiving β-receptor antagonist therapy. At each level of exercise ejection fraction, the population-based patients had a slightly but insignificantly greater risk than referral patients for subsequent cardiac events. These population-based data provide strong evidence of the prognostic value of exercise radionuclide angiography in community practice.