Prognostic Utility of Daily Changes in Glasgow Coma Scale and the Full Outline of Unresponsiveness Score Measurement in Patients with Metabolic Encephalopathy, Central Nervous System Infections and Stroke in Uganda

Background: Metabolic encephalopathy (ME), central nervous system (CNS) infections, and stroke are common causes of reduced level of consciousness in Uganda. However, the prognostic utility of changes in the daily measurements of the Full Outline of Unresponsiveness (FOUR) score and Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) score in these specific disorders is not known. Methods: We conducted secondary analyses of data from patients who presented with reduced level of consciousness due to CNS infections, stroke, or ME to a tertiary hospital in Uganda. Patients had FOUR/GCS scores at admission and at 24 and 48 h. We calculated a change in FOUR score (ΔFOUR) and change in GCS score (ΔGCS) at 24 and 48 h and used logistic regression models to determine whether these changes were predictive of 30-day mortality. In addition, we determined the prognostic utility of adding the admission score to the 24-h ΔFOUR and 24-h ΔGCS on mortality. Results: We analyzed data from 230 patients (86 with ME, 79 with CNS infections, and 65 with stroke). The mean (SD) age was 50.8 (21.3) years, 27% (61 of 230) had HIV infection, and 62% (134 of 230) were peasant farmers. ΔFOUR at 24 h was predictive of mortality among those with ME (odds ratio [OR] 0.64 [95% confidence interval {CI} 0.48–0.84]; p = 0.001) and those with CNS infections (OR 0.65 [95% CI 0.48–0.87]; p = 0.004) but not in those with stroke (OR 1.0 [95% CI 0.73–1.38]; p = 0.998). However, ΔGCS at 24 h was only predictive of mortality in the ME group (OR 0.69 [95% CI 0.56–0.86]; p = 0.001) and not in the CNS or stroke group. This 24-h ΔGCS and ΔFOUR pattern was similar at 48 h in all subgroups. The addition of an admission score to either 24-h ΔFOUR or 24-h ΔGCS significantly improved the predictive ability of the scores in those with stroke and CNS infection but not in those with ME. Conclusions: Twenty-four-hour and 48-h ΔFOUR and ΔGCS are predictive of mortality in Ugandan patients with CNS infections and ME but not in those with stroke. For individuals with stroke, the admission score plays a more significant predictive role that the change in scores.