Probability of pancreatic cancer following diabetes: A population-based study

Suresh T. Chari, Cynthia L. Leibson, Kari G. Rabe, Jeanine Ransom, Mariza De Andrade, Gloria M. Petersen

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

304 Scopus citations

Abstract

Background & Aims: Although diabetes occurs frequently in pancreatic cancer, the value of new-onset diabetes as a marker of underlying pancreatic cancer is unknown. Methods: We assembled a population-based cohort of 2122 Rochester, Minnesota, residents age ≥50 years who first met standardized criteria for diabetes between January 1, 1950, and December 31, 1994, and identified those who developed pancreatic cancer within 3 years of meeting criteria for diabetes. We compared observed rates of pancreatic cancer with expected rates based on the Iowa Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results registry. In a nested case control study, we compared body mass index (BMI) and smoking status in diabetes subjects with and without pancreatic cancer. Results: Of 2122 diabetic subjects, 18 (0.85%) were diagnosed with pancreatic cancer within 3 years of meeting criteria for diabetes; 10 of 18 (56%) were diagnosed <6 months after first meeting criteria for diabetes, and 3 were resected. The observed-to-expected ratio of pancreatic cancer in the cohort was 7.94 (95% CI, 4.70-12.55). Compared with subjects without pancreatic cancer, diabetic subjects with pancreatic cancer were more likely to have met diabetes criteria after age 69 (OR = 4.52, 95% CI, 1.61-12.74) years but did not differ significantly with respect to BMI values (29.2 ± 6.8 vs 26.5 ± 5.0, respectively). A larger proportion of those who developed pancreatic cancer were ever smokers (92% vs 69%, respectively), but this did not reach statistical significance. Conclusions: Approximately 1% of diabetes subjects aged <50 years will be diagnosed with pancreatic cancer within 3 years of first meeting criteria for diabetes. The usefulness of new-onset diabetes as marker of early pancreatic cancer needs further evaluation.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)504-511
Number of pages8
JournalGastroenterology
Volume129
Issue number2
DOIs
StatePublished - Aug 2005

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Hepatology
  • Gastroenterology

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