Predictors of pretransplant dropout and posttransplant recurrence in patients with perihilar cholangiocarcinoma

We have previously reported excellent outcomes with liver transplantation for selected patients with early-stage perihilar cholangiocarcinoma (CCA) following neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy. Our aim was to identify predictors of dropout before transplantation and predictors of cancer recurrence after transplantation. We reviewed all patients with unresectable perihilar CCA treated with neoadjuvant chemoradiation in anticipation for transplantation between 1993 and 2010. Predictors were identified by univariate and multivariate Cox regression analysis of clinical variables. In total, 199 patients were enrolled, of whom 62 dropped out and 131 underwent transplantation at our institution, with six undergoing transplantation elsewhere. Predictors of dropout were carbohydrate antigen 19-9 (CA 19-9) ≥ 500 U/mL (hazard ratio [HR] 2.3; P = 0.04), mass ≥ 3 cm (HR 2.1; P = 0.05), malignant brushing or biopsy (HR 3.6; P = 0.001), and Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score ≥ 20 (HR 3.5; P = 0.02). Posttransplant, recurrence-free 5-year survival was 68%. Predictors of recurrence were elevated CA 19-9 (HR 1.8; P = 0.01), portal vein encasement (HR 3.3; P = 0.007), and residual tumor on explant (HR 9.8; P < 0.001). Primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC), age, history of cholecystectomy, and waiting time were not independent predictors. Conclusion: Outcome following neoadjuvant chemoradiation and liver transplantation for perihilar CCA is excellent. Risk of dropout is related to patient and tumor characteristics and this can be used to guide patient counseling before enrollment. Recurrence risk is mostly associated with presence of residual cancer on explant. Patients with PSC do not have an independent survival advantage over de novo patients, but present with more favorable tumor characteristics.