Predictive value of electrophoretically detected lipoprotein(a) for coronary heart disease and cerebrovascular disease in a community-based cohort of 9936 men and women

Background: Elevated lipoprotein(a) [Lp(a)] levels have been associated with the presence of atherosclerotic disease. However, the results of prospective studies of Lp(a) and cardiovascular disease have been contradictory. Methods and Results: From 1968 through 1982, lipoprotein analysis was performed in 11 335 Olmsted County residents. Quantitative cholesterol and triglycerides were obtained along with semiquantitative Lp(a) levels based on electrophoretic pattern. Lp(a) bands were scored from 0 (absent) to 3 (increased). A cohort of 4967 men and 4968 women with no prior history of atherosclerotic disease who had baseline Lp(a) determinations were followed up for 14 years for development of coronary artery disease (CAD) and cerebrovascular disease (CVD). During 131 330 person-years of follow-up, there were 1848 CAD events and 841 CVD events. Age, diabetes, hypertension, cholesterol, and triglycerides were significantly and independently associated with an increased risk of CAD and CVD in men and women. There was a significant increase in the adjusted hazards ratio for CAD with increasing Lp(a) levels for men and women. For Lp(a) level 3, the hazard ratio was 1.9 (range, 1.3 to 2.9) in women and 1.6 (range, 1.0 to 2.5) in men. The adjusted hazard ratio for CVD showed an irregular association with Lp(a) levels in men and no association in women. Conclusions: In this cohort of 9936 men and women initially free of cardiovascular disease who were followed up for 14 years, Lp(a) was a significant predictor of risk of future CAD. Lp(a) was a weak risk factor for CVD in men and was not a significant predictor of CVD risk in women.