Prediction Models for Clinical Outcome After a Carotid Revascularization Procedure

Carotid Stenosis Trialists’ Collaboration

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

1 Citation (Scopus)

Abstract

Background and Purpose- Prediction models may help physicians to stratify patients with high and low risk for periprocedural complications or long-term stroke risk after carotid artery stenting or carotid endarterectomy. We aimed to evaluate external performance of previously published prediction models for short- and long-term outcome after carotid revascularization in patients with symptomatic carotid artery stenosis. Methods- From a literature review, we selected all prediction models that used only readily available patient characteristics known before procedure initiation. Follow-up data from 2184 carotid artery stenting and 2261 carotid endarterectomy patients from 4 randomized trials (EVA-3S [Endarterectomy Versus Angioplasty in Patients With Symptomatic Severe Carotid Stenosis], SPACE [Stent-Protected Angioplasty Versus Carotid Endarterectomy], ICSS [International Carotid Stenting Study], and CREST [Carotid Revascularization Endarterectomy Versus Stenting Trial]) were used to validate 23 short-term outcome models to estimate stroke or death risk ≤30 days after the procedure and the original outcome measure for which the model was developed. Additionally, we validated 7 long-term outcome models for the original outcome measure. Predictive performance of the models was assessed with C statistics and calibration plots. Results- Stroke or death ≤30 days after the procedure occurred in 158 (7.2%) patients after carotid artery stenting and in 84 (3.7%) patients after carotid endarterectomy. Most models for short-term outcome after carotid artery stenting (n=4) or carotid endarterectomy (n=19) had poor discriminative performance (C statistics ranging from 0.49-0.64) and poor calibration with small absolute risk differences between the lowest and highest risk groups and overestimation of risk in the highest risk groups. Long-term outcome models (n=7) had a slightly better performance with C statistics ranging from 0.59 to 0.67 and reasonable calibration. Conclusions- Current models did not reliably predict outcome after carotid revascularization in a trial population of patients with symptomatic carotid stenosis. In particular, prediction of short-term outcome seemed to be difficult. Further external validation of existing prediction models or development of new prediction models is needed before such models can be used to support treatment decisions in individual patients.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)1880-1885
Number of pages6
JournalStroke
Volume49
Issue number8
DOIs
StatePublished - Aug 1 2018

Fingerprint

Carotid Endarterectomy
Carotid Arteries
Carotid Stenosis
Calibration
Stroke
Angioplasty
Extravehicular Activity
Outcome Assessment (Health Care)
Endarterectomy
Stents
Physicians
Population

Keywords

  • angioplasty
  • calibration
  • carotid stenosis
  • infarction
  • myocardial
  • thromboembolism

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Clinical Neurology
  • Cardiology and Cardiovascular Medicine
  • Advanced and Specialized Nursing

Cite this

Prediction Models for Clinical Outcome After a Carotid Revascularization Procedure. / Carotid Stenosis Trialists’ Collaboration.

In: Stroke, Vol. 49, No. 8, 01.08.2018, p. 1880-1885.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Carotid Stenosis Trialists’ Collaboration. / Prediction Models for Clinical Outcome After a Carotid Revascularization Procedure. In: Stroke. 2018 ; Vol. 49, No. 8. pp. 1880-1885.
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title = "Prediction Models for Clinical Outcome After a Carotid Revascularization Procedure",
abstract = "Background and Purpose- Prediction models may help physicians to stratify patients with high and low risk for periprocedural complications or long-term stroke risk after carotid artery stenting or carotid endarterectomy. We aimed to evaluate external performance of previously published prediction models for short- and long-term outcome after carotid revascularization in patients with symptomatic carotid artery stenosis. Methods- From a literature review, we selected all prediction models that used only readily available patient characteristics known before procedure initiation. Follow-up data from 2184 carotid artery stenting and 2261 carotid endarterectomy patients from 4 randomized trials (EVA-3S [Endarterectomy Versus Angioplasty in Patients With Symptomatic Severe Carotid Stenosis], SPACE [Stent-Protected Angioplasty Versus Carotid Endarterectomy], ICSS [International Carotid Stenting Study], and CREST [Carotid Revascularization Endarterectomy Versus Stenting Trial]) were used to validate 23 short-term outcome models to estimate stroke or death risk ≤30 days after the procedure and the original outcome measure for which the model was developed. Additionally, we validated 7 long-term outcome models for the original outcome measure. Predictive performance of the models was assessed with C statistics and calibration plots. Results- Stroke or death ≤30 days after the procedure occurred in 158 (7.2{\%}) patients after carotid artery stenting and in 84 (3.7{\%}) patients after carotid endarterectomy. Most models for short-term outcome after carotid artery stenting (n=4) or carotid endarterectomy (n=19) had poor discriminative performance (C statistics ranging from 0.49-0.64) and poor calibration with small absolute risk differences between the lowest and highest risk groups and overestimation of risk in the highest risk groups. Long-term outcome models (n=7) had a slightly better performance with C statistics ranging from 0.59 to 0.67 and reasonable calibration. Conclusions- Current models did not reliably predict outcome after carotid revascularization in a trial population of patients with symptomatic carotid stenosis. In particular, prediction of short-term outcome seemed to be difficult. Further external validation of existing prediction models or development of new prediction models is needed before such models can be used to support treatment decisions in individual patients.",
keywords = "angioplasty, calibration, carotid stenosis, infarction, myocardial, thromboembolism",
author = "{Carotid Stenosis Trialists’ Collaboration} and Volkers, {Eline J.} and Ale Algra and Kappelle, {L. Jaap} and Olav Jansen and George Howard and Jeroen Hendrikse and Alison Halliday and John Gregson and Gustav Fraedrich and Eckstein, {Hans Henning} and David Calvet and Richard Bulbulia and Brown, {Martin M.} and Becquemin, {Jean Pierre} and Ringleb, {Peter A.} and Mas, {Jean Louis} and Bonati, {Leo H.} and Brott, {Thomas G} and Greving, {Jacoba P.}",
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T1 - Prediction Models for Clinical Outcome After a Carotid Revascularization Procedure

AU - Carotid Stenosis Trialists’ Collaboration

AU - Volkers, Eline J.

AU - Algra, Ale

AU - Kappelle, L. Jaap

AU - Jansen, Olav

AU - Howard, George

AU - Hendrikse, Jeroen

AU - Halliday, Alison

AU - Gregson, John

AU - Fraedrich, Gustav

AU - Eckstein, Hans Henning

AU - Calvet, David

AU - Bulbulia, Richard

AU - Brown, Martin M.

AU - Becquemin, Jean Pierre

AU - Ringleb, Peter A.

AU - Mas, Jean Louis

AU - Bonati, Leo H.

AU - Brott, Thomas G

AU - Greving, Jacoba P.

PY - 2018/8/1

Y1 - 2018/8/1

N2 - Background and Purpose- Prediction models may help physicians to stratify patients with high and low risk for periprocedural complications or long-term stroke risk after carotid artery stenting or carotid endarterectomy. We aimed to evaluate external performance of previously published prediction models for short- and long-term outcome after carotid revascularization in patients with symptomatic carotid artery stenosis. Methods- From a literature review, we selected all prediction models that used only readily available patient characteristics known before procedure initiation. Follow-up data from 2184 carotid artery stenting and 2261 carotid endarterectomy patients from 4 randomized trials (EVA-3S [Endarterectomy Versus Angioplasty in Patients With Symptomatic Severe Carotid Stenosis], SPACE [Stent-Protected Angioplasty Versus Carotid Endarterectomy], ICSS [International Carotid Stenting Study], and CREST [Carotid Revascularization Endarterectomy Versus Stenting Trial]) were used to validate 23 short-term outcome models to estimate stroke or death risk ≤30 days after the procedure and the original outcome measure for which the model was developed. Additionally, we validated 7 long-term outcome models for the original outcome measure. Predictive performance of the models was assessed with C statistics and calibration plots. Results- Stroke or death ≤30 days after the procedure occurred in 158 (7.2%) patients after carotid artery stenting and in 84 (3.7%) patients after carotid endarterectomy. Most models for short-term outcome after carotid artery stenting (n=4) or carotid endarterectomy (n=19) had poor discriminative performance (C statistics ranging from 0.49-0.64) and poor calibration with small absolute risk differences between the lowest and highest risk groups and overestimation of risk in the highest risk groups. Long-term outcome models (n=7) had a slightly better performance with C statistics ranging from 0.59 to 0.67 and reasonable calibration. Conclusions- Current models did not reliably predict outcome after carotid revascularization in a trial population of patients with symptomatic carotid stenosis. In particular, prediction of short-term outcome seemed to be difficult. Further external validation of existing prediction models or development of new prediction models is needed before such models can be used to support treatment decisions in individual patients.

AB - Background and Purpose- Prediction models may help physicians to stratify patients with high and low risk for periprocedural complications or long-term stroke risk after carotid artery stenting or carotid endarterectomy. We aimed to evaluate external performance of previously published prediction models for short- and long-term outcome after carotid revascularization in patients with symptomatic carotid artery stenosis. Methods- From a literature review, we selected all prediction models that used only readily available patient characteristics known before procedure initiation. Follow-up data from 2184 carotid artery stenting and 2261 carotid endarterectomy patients from 4 randomized trials (EVA-3S [Endarterectomy Versus Angioplasty in Patients With Symptomatic Severe Carotid Stenosis], SPACE [Stent-Protected Angioplasty Versus Carotid Endarterectomy], ICSS [International Carotid Stenting Study], and CREST [Carotid Revascularization Endarterectomy Versus Stenting Trial]) were used to validate 23 short-term outcome models to estimate stroke or death risk ≤30 days after the procedure and the original outcome measure for which the model was developed. Additionally, we validated 7 long-term outcome models for the original outcome measure. Predictive performance of the models was assessed with C statistics and calibration plots. Results- Stroke or death ≤30 days after the procedure occurred in 158 (7.2%) patients after carotid artery stenting and in 84 (3.7%) patients after carotid endarterectomy. Most models for short-term outcome after carotid artery stenting (n=4) or carotid endarterectomy (n=19) had poor discriminative performance (C statistics ranging from 0.49-0.64) and poor calibration with small absolute risk differences between the lowest and highest risk groups and overestimation of risk in the highest risk groups. Long-term outcome models (n=7) had a slightly better performance with C statistics ranging from 0.59 to 0.67 and reasonable calibration. Conclusions- Current models did not reliably predict outcome after carotid revascularization in a trial population of patients with symptomatic carotid stenosis. In particular, prediction of short-term outcome seemed to be difficult. Further external validation of existing prediction models or development of new prediction models is needed before such models can be used to support treatment decisions in individual patients.

KW - angioplasty

KW - calibration

KW - carotid stenosis

KW - infarction

KW - myocardial

KW - thromboembolism

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