Predicting relapse in ductal carcinoma in situ patients: an analysis of biologic markers with long-term follow-up

Background: The incidence of ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) of the breast is increasing. Optimal treatment remains controversial and, because of a long natural history, may not be evident for many years. We undertook this study to identify markers of disease recurrence. Methods: We studied 131 pure DCIS patients with a 100-month mean follow-up. We performed a complete histologic review, immunohistochemical staining for p53 and vascular endothelial growth factor expression, and enumerated microvessel density/mm² using factor VIII-Ab. Statistical analysis was performed by using an SAS software package (Cary, NC). Results: Eleven patients (8%) developed ipsilateral recurrence at a mean of 55 months (11-137 months) after initial treatment. Three were DCIS, and 8 were invasive cancer. Recurrence was significantly predicted by p53 overexpression (in 55% of tumors that recurred versus 22% of those that did not, P = .02) but not other factors. Conclusions: These data suggest that biologic factors may have an important role in predicting recurrence in DCIS patients.