Predicting Nodal Positivity in Women 70 Years of Age and Older with Hormone Receptor-Positive Breast Cancer to Aid Incorporation of a Society of Surgical Oncology Choosing Wisely Guideline into Clinical Practice

Jessemae L. Welsh, Tanya L. Hoskin, Courtney N. Day, Elizabeth B Habermann, Matthew Philip Goetz, Judy C Boughey

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13 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Purpose: One of the Society of Surgical Oncology Choosing Wisely guidelines recommends avoiding routine sentinel lymph node (SLN) surgery in clinically node-negative women ≥70 years of age with hormone receptor-positive (HR+) breast cancer. We sought to assess the impact of tumor stage and grade on nodal positivity, and to develop a model to identify patients at low-risk of nodal positivity to aid adoption of the guideline. Methods: We identified women ≥70 years of age with HR+ cN0 invasive breast cancer in the National Cancer Database (NCDB; 2010–2013) and examined the impact of tumor stage and grade on nodal positivity to identify low-risk combinations. A multivariable logistic regression model was developed to incorporate additional factors. The area under the curve (AUC) and relative risks (RR) were used to assess performance. Results: Among 71,834 cases, the pathologic nodal positivity (pN+) rate was 15.3%. We identified low-risk criteria as grade 1, cT1mi-T1c (≤2.0 cm), or grade 2, cT1mi-T1b (≤1.0 cm), with pN+ rates of 7.8% compared with 22.3% in patients not meeting these criteria (RR 2.86, p < 0.001). On multivariable analysis, factors associated with pN+ status included clinical T stage, grade, and histology (each p < 0.001). The resulting model had AUC 0.70 and identified women with low predicted probability (<10%) of positive nodes, of whom 6.3% were pN+, versus 21.2% in those with predicted probability ≥10% (RR 3.34, p < 0.001). Conclusion: The simple clinical rule (grade 1, cT1mi-T1c, or grade 2, cT1mi-T1b), as well as the predictive model, both identify women at low risk of nodal positivity where SLN surgery can be omitted.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)1-8
Number of pages8
JournalAnnals of Surgical Oncology
DOIs
StateAccepted/In press - Aug 1 2017

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Hormones
Guidelines
Breast Neoplasms
Area Under Curve
Logistic Models
Neoplasms
Histology
Databases
Sentinel Lymph Node

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Surgery
  • Oncology

Cite this

@article{dbcfa8e345134179a03b419ab4d1b09b,
title = "Predicting Nodal Positivity in Women 70 Years of Age and Older with Hormone Receptor-Positive Breast Cancer to Aid Incorporation of a Society of Surgical Oncology Choosing Wisely Guideline into Clinical Practice",
abstract = "Purpose: One of the Society of Surgical Oncology Choosing Wisely guidelines recommends avoiding routine sentinel lymph node (SLN) surgery in clinically node-negative women ≥70 years of age with hormone receptor-positive (HR+) breast cancer. We sought to assess the impact of tumor stage and grade on nodal positivity, and to develop a model to identify patients at low-risk of nodal positivity to aid adoption of the guideline. Methods: We identified women ≥70 years of age with HR+ cN0 invasive breast cancer in the National Cancer Database (NCDB; 2010–2013) and examined the impact of tumor stage and grade on nodal positivity to identify low-risk combinations. A multivariable logistic regression model was developed to incorporate additional factors. The area under the curve (AUC) and relative risks (RR) were used to assess performance. Results: Among 71,834 cases, the pathologic nodal positivity (pN+) rate was 15.3{\%}. We identified low-risk criteria as grade 1, cT1mi-T1c (≤2.0 cm), or grade 2, cT1mi-T1b (≤1.0 cm), with pN+ rates of 7.8{\%} compared with 22.3{\%} in patients not meeting these criteria (RR 2.86, p < 0.001). On multivariable analysis, factors associated with pN+ status included clinical T stage, grade, and histology (each p < 0.001). The resulting model had AUC 0.70 and identified women with low predicted probability (<10{\%}) of positive nodes, of whom 6.3{\%} were pN+, versus 21.2{\%} in those with predicted probability ≥10{\%} (RR 3.34, p < 0.001). Conclusion: The simple clinical rule (grade 1, cT1mi-T1c, or grade 2, cT1mi-T1b), as well as the predictive model, both identify women at low risk of nodal positivity where SLN surgery can be omitted.",
author = "Welsh, {Jessemae L.} and Hoskin, {Tanya L.} and Day, {Courtney N.} and Habermann, {Elizabeth B} and Goetz, {Matthew Philip} and Boughey, {Judy C}",
year = "2017",
month = "8",
day = "1",
doi = "10.1245/s10434-017-5932-1",
language = "English (US)",
pages = "1--8",
journal = "Annals of Surgical Oncology",
issn = "1068-9265",
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TY - JOUR

T1 - Predicting Nodal Positivity in Women 70 Years of Age and Older with Hormone Receptor-Positive Breast Cancer to Aid Incorporation of a Society of Surgical Oncology Choosing Wisely Guideline into Clinical Practice

AU - Welsh, Jessemae L.

AU - Hoskin, Tanya L.

AU - Day, Courtney N.

AU - Habermann, Elizabeth B

AU - Goetz, Matthew Philip

AU - Boughey, Judy C

PY - 2017/8/1

Y1 - 2017/8/1

N2 - Purpose: One of the Society of Surgical Oncology Choosing Wisely guidelines recommends avoiding routine sentinel lymph node (SLN) surgery in clinically node-negative women ≥70 years of age with hormone receptor-positive (HR+) breast cancer. We sought to assess the impact of tumor stage and grade on nodal positivity, and to develop a model to identify patients at low-risk of nodal positivity to aid adoption of the guideline. Methods: We identified women ≥70 years of age with HR+ cN0 invasive breast cancer in the National Cancer Database (NCDB; 2010–2013) and examined the impact of tumor stage and grade on nodal positivity to identify low-risk combinations. A multivariable logistic regression model was developed to incorporate additional factors. The area under the curve (AUC) and relative risks (RR) were used to assess performance. Results: Among 71,834 cases, the pathologic nodal positivity (pN+) rate was 15.3%. We identified low-risk criteria as grade 1, cT1mi-T1c (≤2.0 cm), or grade 2, cT1mi-T1b (≤1.0 cm), with pN+ rates of 7.8% compared with 22.3% in patients not meeting these criteria (RR 2.86, p < 0.001). On multivariable analysis, factors associated with pN+ status included clinical T stage, grade, and histology (each p < 0.001). The resulting model had AUC 0.70 and identified women with low predicted probability (<10%) of positive nodes, of whom 6.3% were pN+, versus 21.2% in those with predicted probability ≥10% (RR 3.34, p < 0.001). Conclusion: The simple clinical rule (grade 1, cT1mi-T1c, or grade 2, cT1mi-T1b), as well as the predictive model, both identify women at low risk of nodal positivity where SLN surgery can be omitted.

AB - Purpose: One of the Society of Surgical Oncology Choosing Wisely guidelines recommends avoiding routine sentinel lymph node (SLN) surgery in clinically node-negative women ≥70 years of age with hormone receptor-positive (HR+) breast cancer. We sought to assess the impact of tumor stage and grade on nodal positivity, and to develop a model to identify patients at low-risk of nodal positivity to aid adoption of the guideline. Methods: We identified women ≥70 years of age with HR+ cN0 invasive breast cancer in the National Cancer Database (NCDB; 2010–2013) and examined the impact of tumor stage and grade on nodal positivity to identify low-risk combinations. A multivariable logistic regression model was developed to incorporate additional factors. The area under the curve (AUC) and relative risks (RR) were used to assess performance. Results: Among 71,834 cases, the pathologic nodal positivity (pN+) rate was 15.3%. We identified low-risk criteria as grade 1, cT1mi-T1c (≤2.0 cm), or grade 2, cT1mi-T1b (≤1.0 cm), with pN+ rates of 7.8% compared with 22.3% in patients not meeting these criteria (RR 2.86, p < 0.001). On multivariable analysis, factors associated with pN+ status included clinical T stage, grade, and histology (each p < 0.001). The resulting model had AUC 0.70 and identified women with low predicted probability (<10%) of positive nodes, of whom 6.3% were pN+, versus 21.2% in those with predicted probability ≥10% (RR 3.34, p < 0.001). Conclusion: The simple clinical rule (grade 1, cT1mi-T1c, or grade 2, cT1mi-T1b), as well as the predictive model, both identify women at low risk of nodal positivity where SLN surgery can be omitted.

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