TY - JOUR
T1 - Predicting Alzheimer's Disease and Related Dementias in Heart Failure and Atrial Fibrillation
AU - Manemann, Sheila M.
AU - Chamberlain, Alanna M.
AU - Bielinski, Suzette J.
AU - Jiang, Ruoxiang
AU - Weston, Susan A.
AU - Roger, Véronique L.
N1 - Funding Information:
Funding: This work was supported by the National Institute on Aging (R21 AG064804) and used the resources of the Rochester Epidemiology Project (REP) medical records-linkage system, which is supported by the National Institute on Aging (NIA; AG058738), by the Mayo Clinic Research Committee, and by fees paid annually by REP users. The content of this article is solely the responsibility of the authors and does not represent the official views of the National Institutes of Health (NIH) or the Mayo Clinic. The funding sources played no role in the design, conduct, or reporting of this study.
Publisher Copyright:
© 2022 Elsevier Inc.
PY - 2023/3
Y1 - 2023/3
N2 - Background: The Framingham Heart Study Dementia Risk Score (FDRS) was developed in a general population of older persons. It is unknown how the FDRS variables predict Alzheimer's disease and Alzheimer's disease-related dementias (AD/ADRD) in heart failure and atrial fibrillation populations. We aimed to evaluate the predictive ability of the FDRS variables in population-based cohorts of heart failure and atrial fibrillation and to determine whether the addition of other comorbidities and risk factors improves risk prediction for AD/ADRD. Methods: Residents aged ≥50 years from 7 southeastern Minnesota counties with a first diagnosis of heart failure or atrial fibrillation between January 1, 2013, and December 31, 2017, were identified. Patients with AD/ADRD before or within 6 months after index atrial fibrillation or heart failure and patients who died within 6 months after index were excluded. For both cohorts, models were constructed to predict AD/ADRD after index including the variables in the FDRS. Additional comorbidities and risk factors were added to the models. For all models, c-statistics using 5-fold cross-validation were calculated. Results: Among 3052 patients with heart failure (mean age 75 years, 53% male), 626 developed AD/ADRD; among 4107 patients with atrial fibrillation (mean age 74 years, 57% male), 736 developed AD/ADRD. Among patients with heart failure, the FDRS variables predicted AD/ADRD with c-statistic = 0.69. Adding comorbidities and risk factors improved the c-statistic slightly to 0.70. The FDRS variables also performed well (c-statistic = 0.73) in patients with atrial fibrillation; adding comorbidities and risk factors slightly improved performance (c-statistic = 0.75). Conclusions: The variables from the FDRS predict AD/ADRD well in both heart failure and atrial fibrillation populations. The addition of comorbidities and risk factors only modestly improved prediction, indicating that the FDRS variables are appropriate to predict AD/ADRD in patients with heart failure and atrial fibrillation.
AB - Background: The Framingham Heart Study Dementia Risk Score (FDRS) was developed in a general population of older persons. It is unknown how the FDRS variables predict Alzheimer's disease and Alzheimer's disease-related dementias (AD/ADRD) in heart failure and atrial fibrillation populations. We aimed to evaluate the predictive ability of the FDRS variables in population-based cohorts of heart failure and atrial fibrillation and to determine whether the addition of other comorbidities and risk factors improves risk prediction for AD/ADRD. Methods: Residents aged ≥50 years from 7 southeastern Minnesota counties with a first diagnosis of heart failure or atrial fibrillation between January 1, 2013, and December 31, 2017, were identified. Patients with AD/ADRD before or within 6 months after index atrial fibrillation or heart failure and patients who died within 6 months after index were excluded. For both cohorts, models were constructed to predict AD/ADRD after index including the variables in the FDRS. Additional comorbidities and risk factors were added to the models. For all models, c-statistics using 5-fold cross-validation were calculated. Results: Among 3052 patients with heart failure (mean age 75 years, 53% male), 626 developed AD/ADRD; among 4107 patients with atrial fibrillation (mean age 74 years, 57% male), 736 developed AD/ADRD. Among patients with heart failure, the FDRS variables predicted AD/ADRD with c-statistic = 0.69. Adding comorbidities and risk factors improved the c-statistic slightly to 0.70. The FDRS variables also performed well (c-statistic = 0.73) in patients with atrial fibrillation; adding comorbidities and risk factors slightly improved performance (c-statistic = 0.75). Conclusions: The variables from the FDRS predict AD/ADRD well in both heart failure and atrial fibrillation populations. The addition of comorbidities and risk factors only modestly improved prediction, indicating that the FDRS variables are appropriate to predict AD/ADRD in patients with heart failure and atrial fibrillation.
KW - Alzheimer's disease
KW - Alzheimer's disease-related dementias
KW - Atrial fibrillation
KW - Heart failure
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U2 - 10.1016/j.amjmed.2022.11.010
DO - 10.1016/j.amjmed.2022.11.010
M3 - Article
C2 - 36502953
AN - SCOPUS:85146130397
SN - 0002-9343
VL - 136
SP - 302
EP - 307
JO - American Journal of Medicine
JF - American Journal of Medicine
IS - 3
ER -