@article{0f259fa0697740199034a9c6ce79e819,
title = "PREDICT Plus: Development and validation of a prognostic model for early breast cancer that includes HER2",
abstract = "Background:Predict (www.predict.nhs.uk) is an online, breast cancer prognostication and treatment benefit tool. The aim of this study was to incorporate the prognostic effect of HER2 status in a new version (Predict+), and to compare its performance with the original Predict and Adjuvant.Methods:The prognostic effect of HER2 status was based on an analysis of data from 10 179 breast cancer patients from 14 studies in the Breast Cancer Association Consortium. The hazard ratio estimates were incorporated into Predict. The validation study was based on 1653 patients with early-stage invasive breast cancer identified from the British Columbia Breast Cancer Outcomes Unit. Predicted overall survival (OS) and breast cancer-specific survival (BCSS) for Predict, Predict and Adjuvant were compared with observed outcomes.Results:All three models performed well for both OS and BCSS. Both Predict models provided better BCSS estimates than Adjuvant. In the subset of patients with HER2-positive tumours, Predict+ performed substantially better than the other two models for both OS and BCSS.Conclusion:Predict+ is the first clinical breast cancer prognostication tool that includes tumour HER2 status. Use of the model might lead to more accurate absolute treatment benefit predictions for individual patients.",
keywords = "HER2, breast cancer, prognostic model",
author = "Wishart, {G. C.} and Bajdik, {C. D.} and E. Dicks and E. Provenzano and Schmidt, {M. K.} and M. Sherman and Greenberg, {D. C.} and Green, {A. R.} and Gelmon, {K. A.} and Kosma, {V. M.} and Olson, {J. E.} and Beckmann, {M. W.} and R. Winqvist and Cross, {S. S.} and G. Severi and D. Huntsman and K. Pylk{\"a}s and I. Ellis and Nielsen, {T. O.} and G. Giles and C. Blomqvist and Fasching, {P. A.} and Couch, {F. J.} and E. Rakha and Foulkes, {W. D.} and Blows, {F. M.} and B{\'e}gin, {L. R.} and {Van'T Veer}, {L. J.} and M. Southey and H. Nevanlinna and A. Mannermaa and A. Cox and M. Cheang and L. Baglietto and C. Caldas and M. Garcia-Closas and Pharoah, {P. D.P.}",
note = "Funding Information: 1Cambridge Breast Unit, Addenbrookes Hospital, Cambridge, UK; 2Cancer Control Research Program, British Columbia Cancer Agency, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada; 3Department of Oncology, Strangeways Research Laboratory, University of Cambridge, Worts Causeway, Cambridge CB1 8RN, UK; 4Division of Molecular Pathology, and Division of Psychosocial Research and Epidemiology, Netherlands Cancer Institute, Amsterdam, The Netherlands; 5Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, National Cancer Institute, Rockville, MD, USA; 6Eastern Cancer Registration and Information Centre, Cambridge, UK; 7Department of Pathology, School of Molecular Medical Sciences, University of Nottingham, Nottingham, UK; 8Department of Medical Oncology, British Columbia Cancer Agency, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada; 9School of Medicine, Institute of Clinical Medicine, Pathology and Forensic Medicine, University of Eastern Finland, Kuopio, Finland; 10Department of Pathology, Kuopio University Hospital, Kuopio, Finland; 11Department of Health Sciences Research, Mayo Clinic, Rochester, MN, USA; 12University Breast Center Franconia, Department of Gynecology and Obstetrics, University Hospital Erlangen, Friedrich-Alexander-University, Erlangen, Germany; 13Laboratory of Cancer Genetics, Department of Clinical Genetics and Biocenter Oulu, University of Oulu and Oulu University Hospital, Oulu, Finland; 14Academic Unit of Pathology, Department of Neuroscience, University of Sheffield, Sheffield, UK; 15Cancer Epidemiology Centre, The Cancer Council of Victoria, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia; 16Department of Pathology and Laboratory Medicine, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada; 17Department of Oncology, University of Helsinki and Helsinki University Central Hospital, Helsinki, Finland; 18Department of Histopathology, School of Molecular Medical Sciences, Nottingham University Hospitals NHS Trust and University of Nottingham, Nottingham, UK; 19Department of Laboratory Medicine and Pathology, Mayo Clinic, Rochester, MN, USA; 20Program in Cancer Genetics, Departments of Oncology and Human Genetics, McGill University, Montr{\'e}al, Quebec, Canada; 21Department of Pathology, McGill University and H{\^o}pital du Sacr{\'e}, Montr{\'e}al, Quebec, Canada; 22Department of Obstetrics and Gynaecology, University of Helsinki and Helsinki University Central Hospital, Helsinki, Finland; 23Department of Oncology University of Sheffield, Institute for Cancer Studies, Sheffield, UK; 24Division of Genetics and Epidemiology and Breakthrough Breast Cancer Research Centre, Institute of Cancer Research, Sutton, UK",
year = "2012",
month = aug,
day = "21",
doi = "10.1038/bjc.2012.338",
language = "English (US)",
volume = "107",
pages = "800--807",
journal = "British Journal of Cancer",
issn = "0007-0920",
publisher = "Nature Publishing Group",
number = "5",
}