Patterns of Recurrence and Modes of Progression After Metastasis-Directed Therapy in Oligometastatic Castration-Sensitive Prostate Cancer

Purpose: Metastasis-directed therapy (MDT) is increasingly used in castration-sensitive oligometastatic prostate cancer because it prolongs progression-free survival (PFS) and androgen deprivation free survival. Here we describe patterns of recurrence and identify modes of progression after MDT using SABR. Methods and Materials: Two hundred fifty-eight patients with castration-sensitive oligometastatic prostate cancer (≤5 lesions at staging) were retrospectively identified from a multi-institutional database. Descriptive patterns of recurrence and modes of progression were reported. Other outcomes including median time to prostate-specific antigen (PSA) recurrence, time to next intervention, distant metastasis–free survival, overall survival, and biochemical PFS (bPFS) were reported. Survival analysis was performed using the Kaplan-Meier method, and multivariable analysis was performed. Results: Median follow-up was 25.2 months, and 50.4% of patients received concurrent androgen deprivation. Median time to PSA recurrence was 15.7 months, time to next intervention was 28.6 months, distant metastasis–free survival was 19.1 months, and bPFS was 16.1 months. Two-year overall survival was 96.8%. On multivariable analysis, factors associated with bPFS included age (hazard ratio [HR], 1.03; P =.04), N1 disease at diagnosis (HR, 2.00; P =.02), M1 disease at diagnosis (HR, 0.44; P =.01), initial PSA at diagnosis (HR, 1.002; P = <.001), use of androgen deprivation therapy (HR, 0.41; P <.001), pre-SABR PSA (HR, 1.02; P =.01), and use of enhanced imaging for staging (HR, 2.81; P =.001). Patterns of progression favored an osseous component at recurrence; in patients initially treated to a bone lesion alone, the vast majority (86.5%) experienced a recurrence that included an osseous site. Patients treated initially to a nodal site alone tended to recur in a node only (64.5%); however, there was also a significant minority with an osseous component of recurrence at progression (32.3%). Modes of progressors were class I (patients with long term control [no recurrence ≥18 months after therapy]) occurring in 40.9%, class II (oligoprogressors [≤3 lesions at recurrence]) occurring in 36% (including 7.9% of patients with PSA recurrence but no metastatic disease), and class III (polyprogressors [>3 lesions]) occurring in 23.1% of patients. Conclusions: After MDT, the majority of patients have long-term control or oligoprogression (class I or II). Recurrence tended to occur in osseous sites. These findings, if validated, have implications for future integration of MDT and clinical trial design.