Operations optimization of multireservoir systems using storage moments equations

Fletcher-Ponnambalam presented a new model for considering the balance equation of the storage volume of the reservoir using indicator functions. For stochastic inflows, the two storage moments of this balance equation, namely, the mean and variance, calculated using a random release policy were found to be quite accurate unlike any known models. Significantly, this model required no discretization of storage volumes or releases. In this paper, this work has been extended to two new cases: for multireservoir systems which require further consideration of the stochastic releases and for arbitrary distribution of inflows using the Beta-equivalent Kumaraswamy distribution which has a simpler form than Beta. The randomized release policies are easy to use even in a multireservoir problem. The Parambikulm-Aliyar Project from India is used as a case study. Results show accurate predictions of mean of storages in the multireservoir case but show the need for further improvement in the standard deviations of storages. The optimal benefits and the policies obtained are shown to be at least as good as obtained using Monte Carlo-based methods.