Multicohort Retrospective Validation of a Predictive Biomarker for Topoisomerase I Inhibitors

Purpose: The camptothecin (CPT) analogs topotecan and irinotecan specifically target topoisomerase I (topoI) and are used to treat colorectal, gastric, and pancreatic cancer. Response rate for this class of drug varies from 10% to 30%, and there is no predictive biomarker for patient stratification by response. On the basis of our understanding of CPT drug resistance mechanisms, we developed an immunohistochemistry-based predictive test, P-topoI-Dx, to stratify the patient population into those who did and did not experience a response. Patients and Methods: The retrospective validation studies included a training set (n = 79) and a validation cohort (n = 27) of gastric cancer (GC) patients, and 8 cohorts of colorectal cancer (CRC) patient tissue (n = 176). Progression-free survival for 6 months was considered a positive response to CPT-based therapy. Formalin-fixed, paraffin-embedded slides were immunohistochemically stained with anti–phospho-specific topoI-Serine10 (topoI-pS10), quantitated, and analyzed statistically. Results: We determined a threshold of 35% positive staining to offer optimal test characteristics in GC. The GC (n = 79) training set demonstrated 76.6% (95% confidence interval, 64-86) sensitivity; 68.8% (41-88) specificity; positive predictive value (PPV) 92.5% (81-98); and negative predictive value (NPV) 42.3% (24-62). The GC validation set (n = 27) demonstrated 82.4% (56-95) sensitivity and 70.0% (35-92) specificity. Estimated PPV and NPV were 82.4% (56-95) and 70.0% (35-92) respectively. In the CRC validation set (n = 176), the 40% threshold demonstrated 87.5% (78-94) sensitivity; 70.0% (59-79) specificity; PPV 70.7% (61-79); and NPV 87.0 % (77-93). Conclusion: The analysis of retrospective data from patients (n = 282) provides clinical validity to our P-topoI-Dx immunohistochemical test to identify patients with disease that is most likely to respond to topoI inhibitors.