TY - JOUR
T1 - Lifetime fracture risk
T2 - An approach to hip fracture risk assessment based on bone mineral density and age
AU - Joseph^Melton, L.
AU - Kan, Stephen H.
AU - Wahner, Heinz W.
AU - Lawrence Riggs, B.
N1 - Funding Information:
Acknowledgements-This research grant AR-27065 Health. The authors would for assistance in preparing work was supported in part by from the National Institutes of like to thank MS Mary Ramaker the manuscript.
PY - 1988
Y1 - 1988
N2 - Hip fractures occur late in life following a substantial reduction in skeletal mass. If risk for such fractures could be predicted early, efforts to prevent excessive bone loss would be more successful and could be directed at the individuals most likely to be affected. With this objective in mind, we devised an approach to estimating the lifetime risk of a proximal femur fracture based on age and on current femoral bone mineral density, using population-based data from ongoing studies of osteoporosis and fractures among Rochester, Minnesota, women. Our calculations indicate that, at any given age, the lifetime risk of a proximal femur fracture rises as current bone density diminishes. At any given level of femoral bone density, lifetime risk rises with younger age and increasing life expectancy. While these trends seem robust, estimates of risk vary substantially with the assumptions that underlie the model. Consequently, these assumptions must be validated before our findings can be applied clinically to predict risk for individual patients.
AB - Hip fractures occur late in life following a substantial reduction in skeletal mass. If risk for such fractures could be predicted early, efforts to prevent excessive bone loss would be more successful and could be directed at the individuals most likely to be affected. With this objective in mind, we devised an approach to estimating the lifetime risk of a proximal femur fracture based on age and on current femoral bone mineral density, using population-based data from ongoing studies of osteoporosis and fractures among Rochester, Minnesota, women. Our calculations indicate that, at any given age, the lifetime risk of a proximal femur fracture rises as current bone density diminishes. At any given level of femoral bone density, lifetime risk rises with younger age and increasing life expectancy. While these trends seem robust, estimates of risk vary substantially with the assumptions that underlie the model. Consequently, these assumptions must be validated before our findings can be applied clinically to predict risk for individual patients.
KW - Bone mineral density
KW - Epidemiology
KW - Hip fracture
KW - Incidence
KW - Lifetime
KW - Osteoporosis
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U2 - 10.1016/0895-4356(88)90036-4
DO - 10.1016/0895-4356(88)90036-4
M3 - Article
C2 - 3193143
AN - SCOPUS:0024246095
SN - 0895-4356
VL - 41
SP - 985
EP - 994
JO - Journal of Clinical Epidemiology
JF - Journal of Clinical Epidemiology
IS - 10
ER -