Inpatient Mortality Risk Scores and Postdischarge Events in Hospitalized Heart Failure Patients

A Community-Based Study

Sithu Win, Imad Hussain, Virginia B. Hebl, Shannon M Dunlay, Margaret May Redfield

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

2 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Background The Acute Decompensated Heart Failure National Registry (ADHERE) and Get With The Guidelines (GWTG) registries have developed simple heart failure (HF) in-hospital mortality risk scores. We hypothesized that HF scores predictive of in-hospital mortality would perform as well for early postdischarge mortality risk stratification. Methods and Results In this single-center, community-based, retrospective study of all consecutive primary HF hospitalizations (6203 hospitalizations in 3745 patients) from 2000 to 2013, the ADHERE and GWTG risk scores were calculated from admission data. There were 176 (3.0%) and 399 (6.7%), 869 (14.7%), and 1272 (21.5%) deaths in-hospital and at 30, 90, and 180 days postdischarge, respectively. The GWTG but not ADHERE risk score was well calibrated for in-hospital mortality. Both the ADHERE (C statistic 0.66 and 0.67, 0.64, and 0.64) and GWTG (C statistic 0.74 and 0.73, 0.71, and 0.70) HF risk scores were similarly predictive of in-hospital and 30-, 90-, and 180-day postdischarge mortality. The ADHERE risk score identified 10% and the GWTG risk score identified 20% of hospitalizations where 180-day postdischarge mortality was 50%, a prognostic bench mark for hospice referral. In contrast, hospitalizations characterized as lowest risk by the ADHERE (57% of hospitalizations; 180-day mortality 16.2%) or GWTG score (20% of hospitalizations; 180-day mortality 8.0%) had substantially lower mortality (odds ratios high versus low risk of 5-8 [ADHERE] and 11-18 [GWTG] across time points; P<0.0001 for all). Conclusions The simple ADHERE and GWTG scores stratify hospitalized HF patients for both inpatient and early postdischarge mortality risk, allowing comprehensive risk assessment on admission.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Article numbere003926
JournalCirculation: Heart Failure
Volume10
Issue number7
DOIs
StatePublished - Jul 1 2017

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Inpatients
Heart Failure
Registries
Mortality
Guidelines
Hospitalization
Hospital Mortality
Hospices
Referral and Consultation
Retrospective Studies
Odds Ratio

Keywords

  • heart failure
  • hospital readmission follow-up studies
  • hospitalization
  • human
  • risk assessment

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Cardiology and Cardiovascular Medicine

Cite this

Inpatient Mortality Risk Scores and Postdischarge Events in Hospitalized Heart Failure Patients : A Community-Based Study. / Win, Sithu; Hussain, Imad; Hebl, Virginia B.; Dunlay, Shannon M; Redfield, Margaret May.

In: Circulation: Heart Failure, Vol. 10, No. 7, e003926, 01.07.2017.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

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abstract = "Background The Acute Decompensated Heart Failure National Registry (ADHERE) and Get With The Guidelines (GWTG) registries have developed simple heart failure (HF) in-hospital mortality risk scores. We hypothesized that HF scores predictive of in-hospital mortality would perform as well for early postdischarge mortality risk stratification. Methods and Results In this single-center, community-based, retrospective study of all consecutive primary HF hospitalizations (6203 hospitalizations in 3745 patients) from 2000 to 2013, the ADHERE and GWTG risk scores were calculated from admission data. There were 176 (3.0{\%}) and 399 (6.7{\%}), 869 (14.7{\%}), and 1272 (21.5{\%}) deaths in-hospital and at 30, 90, and 180 days postdischarge, respectively. The GWTG but not ADHERE risk score was well calibrated for in-hospital mortality. Both the ADHERE (C statistic 0.66 and 0.67, 0.64, and 0.64) and GWTG (C statistic 0.74 and 0.73, 0.71, and 0.70) HF risk scores were similarly predictive of in-hospital and 30-, 90-, and 180-day postdischarge mortality. The ADHERE risk score identified 10{\%} and the GWTG risk score identified 20{\%} of hospitalizations where 180-day postdischarge mortality was 50{\%}, a prognostic bench mark for hospice referral. In contrast, hospitalizations characterized as lowest risk by the ADHERE (57{\%} of hospitalizations; 180-day mortality 16.2{\%}) or GWTG score (20{\%} of hospitalizations; 180-day mortality 8.0{\%}) had substantially lower mortality (odds ratios high versus low risk of 5-8 [ADHERE] and 11-18 [GWTG] across time points; P<0.0001 for all). Conclusions The simple ADHERE and GWTG scores stratify hospitalized HF patients for both inpatient and early postdischarge mortality risk, allowing comprehensive risk assessment on admission.",
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AU - Dunlay, Shannon M

AU - Redfield, Margaret May

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N2 - Background The Acute Decompensated Heart Failure National Registry (ADHERE) and Get With The Guidelines (GWTG) registries have developed simple heart failure (HF) in-hospital mortality risk scores. We hypothesized that HF scores predictive of in-hospital mortality would perform as well for early postdischarge mortality risk stratification. Methods and Results In this single-center, community-based, retrospective study of all consecutive primary HF hospitalizations (6203 hospitalizations in 3745 patients) from 2000 to 2013, the ADHERE and GWTG risk scores were calculated from admission data. There were 176 (3.0%) and 399 (6.7%), 869 (14.7%), and 1272 (21.5%) deaths in-hospital and at 30, 90, and 180 days postdischarge, respectively. The GWTG but not ADHERE risk score was well calibrated for in-hospital mortality. Both the ADHERE (C statistic 0.66 and 0.67, 0.64, and 0.64) and GWTG (C statistic 0.74 and 0.73, 0.71, and 0.70) HF risk scores were similarly predictive of in-hospital and 30-, 90-, and 180-day postdischarge mortality. The ADHERE risk score identified 10% and the GWTG risk score identified 20% of hospitalizations where 180-day postdischarge mortality was 50%, a prognostic bench mark for hospice referral. In contrast, hospitalizations characterized as lowest risk by the ADHERE (57% of hospitalizations; 180-day mortality 16.2%) or GWTG score (20% of hospitalizations; 180-day mortality 8.0%) had substantially lower mortality (odds ratios high versus low risk of 5-8 [ADHERE] and 11-18 [GWTG] across time points; P<0.0001 for all). Conclusions The simple ADHERE and GWTG scores stratify hospitalized HF patients for both inpatient and early postdischarge mortality risk, allowing comprehensive risk assessment on admission.

AB - Background The Acute Decompensated Heart Failure National Registry (ADHERE) and Get With The Guidelines (GWTG) registries have developed simple heart failure (HF) in-hospital mortality risk scores. We hypothesized that HF scores predictive of in-hospital mortality would perform as well for early postdischarge mortality risk stratification. Methods and Results In this single-center, community-based, retrospective study of all consecutive primary HF hospitalizations (6203 hospitalizations in 3745 patients) from 2000 to 2013, the ADHERE and GWTG risk scores were calculated from admission data. There were 176 (3.0%) and 399 (6.7%), 869 (14.7%), and 1272 (21.5%) deaths in-hospital and at 30, 90, and 180 days postdischarge, respectively. The GWTG but not ADHERE risk score was well calibrated for in-hospital mortality. Both the ADHERE (C statistic 0.66 and 0.67, 0.64, and 0.64) and GWTG (C statistic 0.74 and 0.73, 0.71, and 0.70) HF risk scores were similarly predictive of in-hospital and 30-, 90-, and 180-day postdischarge mortality. The ADHERE risk score identified 10% and the GWTG risk score identified 20% of hospitalizations where 180-day postdischarge mortality was 50%, a prognostic bench mark for hospice referral. In contrast, hospitalizations characterized as lowest risk by the ADHERE (57% of hospitalizations; 180-day mortality 16.2%) or GWTG score (20% of hospitalizations; 180-day mortality 8.0%) had substantially lower mortality (odds ratios high versus low risk of 5-8 [ADHERE] and 11-18 [GWTG] across time points; P<0.0001 for all). Conclusions The simple ADHERE and GWTG scores stratify hospitalized HF patients for both inpatient and early postdischarge mortality risk, allowing comprehensive risk assessment on admission.

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