Infarct size determination by technetium 99m sestamibi single-photon emission computed tomography predicts survival in patients with chronic coronary artery disease

Background: The prognostic value of infarct size quantification by technetium 99m sestamibi single-photon emission computed tomography (SPECT) in patients with chronic coronary artery disease (CAD) has not been established. Methods and Results: Between September 1994 and May 1995, 1323 patients with known or suspected CAD were referred for perfusion imaging for clinical reasons and had infarct size determined by quantitative SPECT imaging. Patients underwent exercise stress (61%), pharmacologic stress (37%), and rest imaging (3%). Patients were excluded if they had cardiomyopathy, valvular heart disease, or myocardial infarction within 3 weeks of the SPECT study. There were 1224 patients who formed the study group. Follow-up was 94% complete at a median of 1.9 ± 0.4 years. Sixty-five percent of patients had no measurable infarct. Among the patients with measurable infarcts, the mean infarct size by sestamibi imaging was 15.0% ± 14.5% of the left ventricle (25% of infarcts ≤5% of the left ventricle and 25% of infarcts ≥19% of the left ventricle). By using stepwise regression analysis, age, diabetes, and hypercholesterolemia were all clinical predictors of overall death (P < .05). For cardiac death, only age and diabetes were significant. After adjusting for these clinical variables, infarct size remained an independent predictor of overall death (P = .001) and survival free of cardiac death (P = .0002). However, when first-pass left ventricular ejection fraction was added to the models, infarct size was no longer significant. Conclusions: Infarct size determination by SPECT ^99mTc sestamibi can predict subsequent death in patients with chronic CAD, although ejection fraction appears to have greater prognostic value.