Increasing Incidence of Pancreatic Cancer Among Women in Olmsted County, Minnesota, 1940 Through 1988

To determine trends in the incidence of pancreatic cancer and associated survival, we conducted a population-based study in Olmsted County, Minnesota. From 1940 through 1988, 219 residents of Olmsted County (120 men and 99 women) were diagnosed as having exocrine pancreatic cancer. All patients were Caucasians, and 92% had a histologically confirmed diagnosis. The mean annual adjusted incidence of pancreatic cancer per 100,000 population was 8.5 overall (113 for men and 6.6 for women). During the course of the study, the incidence rates increased in women (P < 0.05) and in both genders combined (P = 0.06) but not in men (P = 0.4). The male:female ratio decreased from approximately 2:1 for 1940 through 1949 to 1.5:1 for 1980 through 1988. The incidence was significantly associated with increasing age (P < 0.001) and male gender (P < 0.001) but not calendar period (P = 0.19). The overall median duration of survival was 2.8 months. The 1-year survival rate was only 14%, and no patient lived for more than 55 months after pancreatic cancer was diagnosed. Men and women had similar survival rates. The increased incidence of pancreatic cancer among women may be due in part to the increasing life span of women and the increasing occurrence of pancreatic cancer in the aged.