Evaluation of 2 breast cancer risk models in a benign breast disease cohort

Background: More than 1.5 million women per year have a benign breast biopsy resulting in concern about their future breast cancer (BC) risk. This study examined the performance of 2 BC risk models that integrate clinical and histologic findings in this population. Methods: The BC risk at 5 and 10 years was estimated with the Breast Cancer Surveillance Consortium (BCSC) and Benign Breast Disease to Breast Cancer (BBD-BC) models for women diagnosed with benign breast disease (BBD) at the Mayo Clinic from 1997 to 2001. Women with BBD were eligible for the BBD-BC model, but the BCSC model also required a screening mammogram. Calibration and discrimination were assessed. Results: Fifty-six cases of BC were diagnosed among the 2142 women with BBD (median age, 50 years) within 5 years (118 were diagnosed within 10 years). The BBD-BC model had slightly better calibration at 5 years (0.89; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.71-1.21) versus 10 years (0.81; 95% CI, 0.70-1.00) but similar discrimination in the 2 time periods: 0.68 (95% CI, 0.60-0.75) and 0.66 (95% CI, 0.60-0.71), respectively. In contrast, among the 1089 women with screening mammograms (98 cases of BC within 10 years), the BCSC model had better calibration (0.94; 95% CI, 0.85-1.43) and discrimination (0.63; 95% CI, 0.56-0.71) at 10 years versus 5 years (calibration, 1.31; 95% CI, 0.94-2.25; discrimination, 0.59; 95% CI, 0.46-0.71) where discrimination was not different from chance. Conclusions: The BCSC and BBD-BC models were validated in the Mayo BBD cohort, although their performance differed by 5-year risk versus 10-year risk. Further enhancement of these models is needed to provide accurate BC risk estimates for women with BBD.