Background: Options for women at high risk for breast cancer include surveillance, chemoprevention, and prophylactic mastectomy. The data on the outcomes for surveillance and prophylactic mastectomy are incomplete. Methods: We conducted a retrospective study of all women with a family history of breast cancer who underwent bilateral prophylactic mastectomy at the Mayo Clinic between 1960 and 1993. The women were divided into two groups - high risk and moderate risk - on the basis of family history. A control study of the sisters of the high-risk probands and the Gail model were used to predict the-number-of breast cancers expected in these two groups in the absence of prophylactic mastectomy. Results: We identified 639 women with a family history of breast cancer who had undergone bilateral prophylactic mastectomy: 214 at high risk and 425 at moderate risk. The median length of follow-up was 14 years. The median age at prophylactic mastectomy was 42 years. According to the Gail model, 37.4 breast cancers were expected in the moderate-risk group; 4 breast cancers occurred (reduction in risk, 89.5 percent; P<0.001). We compared the numbers of breast cancers among the 214 high-risk probands with the numbers among their 403 sisters who had not undergone prophylactic mastectomy. Of these sisters, 38.7 percent (156) had been given a diagnosis of breast cancer (115 cases were diagnosed before the respective proband's prophylactic mastectomy, 38 were diagnosed afterward, and the time of the diagnosis was unknown in 3 cases). By contrast, breast cancer was diagnosed in 1.4 percent (3 of 214) of the probands. Thus, prophylactic mastectomy was associated with a reduction in the incidence of breast cancer of at least 90 percent. Conclusions: In women with a high risk of breast cancer on the basis of family history, prophylactic mastectomy can significantly reduce the incidence of breast cancer.
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