Developing multivariable models for predicting headache improvement in patients with acute post-traumatic headache attributed to mild traumatic brain injury: A preliminary study

Objectives/Background: Post-traumatic headache (PTH) is a common symptom after mild traumatic brain injury (mTBI). Although there have been several studies that have used clinical features of PTH to attempt to predict headache recovery, currently no accurate methods exist for predicting individuals’ improvement from acute PTH. This study investigated the utility of clinical questionnaires for predicting (i) headache improvement at 3 and 6 months, and (ii) headache trajectories over the first 3 months. Methods: We conducted a clinic-based observational longitudinal study of patients with acute PTH who completed a battery of clinical questionnaires within 0–59 days post-mTBI. The battery included headache history, symptom evaluation, cognitive tests, psychological tests, and scales assessing photosensitivity, hyperacusis, insomnia, cutaneous allodynia, and substance use. Each participant completed a web-based headache diary, which was used to determine headache improvement. Results: Thirty-seven participants with acute PTH (mean age = 42.7, standard deviation [SD] = 12.0; 25 females/12 males) completed questionnaires at an average of 21.7 (SD = 13.1) days post-mTBI. The classification of headache improvement or non-improvement at 3 and 6 months achieved cross-validation area under the curve (AUC) of 0.72 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.55 to 0.89) and 0.84 (95% CI 0.66 to 1.00). Sub-models trained using only the top five features still achieved 0.72 (95% CI 0.55 to 0.90) and 0.77 (95% CI 0.52 to 1.00) AUC. The top five contributing features were from three questionnaires: Pain Catastrophizing Scale total score and helplessness sub-domain score; Sports Concussion Assessment Tool Symptom Evaluation total score and number of symptoms; and the State-Trait Anxiety Inventory score. The functional regression model achieved (Formula presented.) for modeling headache trajectory over the first 3 months. Conclusion: Questionnaires completed following mTBI have good utility for predicting headache improvement at 3 and 6 months in the future as well as the evolving headache trajectory. Reducing the battery to only three questionnaires, which assess post-concussive symptom load and biopsychosocialecologic factors, was helpful to determine a reasonable prediction accuracy for headache improvement.