Competing risk of death when comparing tibial implant types in total knee arthroplasty

Hilal D Maradit Kremers, Walter K Kremers, Rafael J. Sierra, David G. Lewallen, Daniel J. Berry

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

4 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Background: In the presence of a competing risk of death, the Kaplan-Meier method is known to overestimate the probability of implant failure. To our knowledge, themagnitude of the competing risk of death in survivorship analyses in total knee arthroplasty has not been studied. The purpose of this study was to determine the extent of the competing risk of death in different age groups during a long-term follow-up of patients who had undergone primary total knee arthroplasty. Methods: The study population comprised 22,864 primary total knee arthroplasties at a large medical center in the United States. We compared the overall revision outcomes estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method and the cumulative incidence function over a mean follow-up of 7.8 years (range, 0.1 to 26.3 years). Results: The risk of death exceeded the risk of revision by a factor of 4 at twelve years following the surgical procedure. The Kaplan-Meier method overestimated the risk of revision by 3% at five years, 14% at ten years, 32% at fifteen years, and 57% at twenty years. At ten years after the surgical procedure, the risk of death exceeded the risk of revision by a factor of 15 in the all-polyethylene group and by a factor of 3.5 in the metal modular group. The Kaplan-Meier method overestimated the ten-year risk of revision by 18% in the all-polyethylene group and by 11% in the metal modular group. After accounting for the higher competing risk of death in the all-polyethylene group, the cumulative incidence of revision in the metal modular group was about 2.5 to three times higher than that in the all-polyethylene group at ten years. Conclusions: Although the Kaplan-Meier and cumulative incidence methods yielded different implant survival estimates beyond ten years (Kaplan-Meier overestimates implant failure), the size of the bias was small at earlier time points. The extent of overestimation depends on the duration of follow-up and the magnitude of the competing risk of death.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)591-596
Number of pages6
JournalJournal of Bone and Joint Surgery - American Volume
Volume98
Issue number7
DOIs
StatePublished - Apr 6 2016

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Knee Replacement Arthroplasties
Polyethylene
Metals
Incidence
Survival Rate
Age Groups

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Surgery
  • Medicine(all)
  • Orthopedics and Sports Medicine

Cite this

Competing risk of death when comparing tibial implant types in total knee arthroplasty. / Maradit Kremers, Hilal D; Kremers, Walter K; Sierra, Rafael J.; Lewallen, David G.; Berry, Daniel J.

In: Journal of Bone and Joint Surgery - American Volume, Vol. 98, No. 7, 06.04.2016, p. 591-596.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

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abstract = "Background: In the presence of a competing risk of death, the Kaplan-Meier method is known to overestimate the probability of implant failure. To our knowledge, themagnitude of the competing risk of death in survivorship analyses in total knee arthroplasty has not been studied. The purpose of this study was to determine the extent of the competing risk of death in different age groups during a long-term follow-up of patients who had undergone primary total knee arthroplasty. Methods: The study population comprised 22,864 primary total knee arthroplasties at a large medical center in the United States. We compared the overall revision outcomes estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method and the cumulative incidence function over a mean follow-up of 7.8 years (range, 0.1 to 26.3 years). Results: The risk of death exceeded the risk of revision by a factor of 4 at twelve years following the surgical procedure. The Kaplan-Meier method overestimated the risk of revision by 3{\%} at five years, 14{\%} at ten years, 32{\%} at fifteen years, and 57{\%} at twenty years. At ten years after the surgical procedure, the risk of death exceeded the risk of revision by a factor of 15 in the all-polyethylene group and by a factor of 3.5 in the metal modular group. The Kaplan-Meier method overestimated the ten-year risk of revision by 18{\%} in the all-polyethylene group and by 11{\%} in the metal modular group. After accounting for the higher competing risk of death in the all-polyethylene group, the cumulative incidence of revision in the metal modular group was about 2.5 to three times higher than that in the all-polyethylene group at ten years. Conclusions: Although the Kaplan-Meier and cumulative incidence methods yielded different implant survival estimates beyond ten years (Kaplan-Meier overestimates implant failure), the size of the bias was small at earlier time points. The extent of overestimation depends on the duration of follow-up and the magnitude of the competing risk of death.",
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AU - Maradit Kremers, Hilal D

AU - Kremers, Walter K

AU - Sierra, Rafael J.

AU - Lewallen, David G.

AU - Berry, Daniel J.

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N2 - Background: In the presence of a competing risk of death, the Kaplan-Meier method is known to overestimate the probability of implant failure. To our knowledge, themagnitude of the competing risk of death in survivorship analyses in total knee arthroplasty has not been studied. The purpose of this study was to determine the extent of the competing risk of death in different age groups during a long-term follow-up of patients who had undergone primary total knee arthroplasty. Methods: The study population comprised 22,864 primary total knee arthroplasties at a large medical center in the United States. We compared the overall revision outcomes estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method and the cumulative incidence function over a mean follow-up of 7.8 years (range, 0.1 to 26.3 years). Results: The risk of death exceeded the risk of revision by a factor of 4 at twelve years following the surgical procedure. The Kaplan-Meier method overestimated the risk of revision by 3% at five years, 14% at ten years, 32% at fifteen years, and 57% at twenty years. At ten years after the surgical procedure, the risk of death exceeded the risk of revision by a factor of 15 in the all-polyethylene group and by a factor of 3.5 in the metal modular group. The Kaplan-Meier method overestimated the ten-year risk of revision by 18% in the all-polyethylene group and by 11% in the metal modular group. After accounting for the higher competing risk of death in the all-polyethylene group, the cumulative incidence of revision in the metal modular group was about 2.5 to three times higher than that in the all-polyethylene group at ten years. Conclusions: Although the Kaplan-Meier and cumulative incidence methods yielded different implant survival estimates beyond ten years (Kaplan-Meier overestimates implant failure), the size of the bias was small at earlier time points. The extent of overestimation depends on the duration of follow-up and the magnitude of the competing risk of death.

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