Appendicular bone mineral and a woman's lifetime risk of hip fracture

Dennis M. Black, Steven R. Cummings, L. Joseph Melton

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

133 Scopus citations

Abstract

Appendicular bone mass is inversely related to the risk of hip fracture in short-term prospective studies, but hip fractures typically occur about 30 years after menopause. We developed a model that estimates a woman's lifetime risk of hip fracture based on measurement of radial bone mass at age 50 using short-term prospective data relating bone mass to hip fracture, the correlation between bone mass at age 50 and later years, the age-specific incidence of hip fracture and mortality, and prospective data about bone mass and mortality. We estimate that a 50-year-old white woman has a 19% lifetime risk of hip fracture if her radial bone mass is at the 10th percentile for her age and an 11% lifetime risk if her bone mass is at the 90th percentile. Improved measurement techniques that have a higher predictive value for hip fracture in short-term studies could substantially increase this gradient of lifetime risk and therefore be more clinically useful.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)639-646
Number of pages8
JournalJournal of Bone and Mineral Research
Volume7
Issue number6
StatePublished - Jun 1992

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Surgery

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    Black, D. M., Cummings, S. R., & Melton, L. J. (1992). Appendicular bone mineral and a woman's lifetime risk of hip fracture. Journal of Bone and Mineral Research, 7(6), 639-646.