A mathematical modelling tool for predicting survival of individual patients following resection of glioblastoma: A proof of principle

Kristin Swanson, R. C. Rostomily, E. C. Alvord

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

128 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

The prediction of the outcome of individual patients with glioblastoma would be of great significance for monitoring responses to therapy. We hypothesise that, although a large number of genetic-metabolic abnormalities occur upstream, there are two 'final common pathways' dominating glioblastoma growth - net rates of proliferation (ρ) and dispersal (D). These rates can be estimated from features of pretreatment MR images and can be applied in a mathematical model to predict tumour growth, impact of extent of tumour resection and patient survival. Only the pre-operative gadolinium-enhanced T1-weighted (T1-Gd) and T2-weighted (T2) volume data from 70 patients with previously untreated glioblastoma were used to derive a ratio D/ρ for each patient. We developed a 'virtual control' for each patient with the same size tumour at the time of diagnosis, the same ratio of net invasion to proliferation (D/ρ) and the same extent of resection. The median durations of survival and the shapes of the survival curves of actual and 'virtual' patients subjected to biopsy or subtotal resection (STR) superimpose exactly. For those actually receiving gross total resection (GTR), as shown by post-operative CT, the actual survival curve lies between the 'virtual' results predicted for 100 and 125% resection of the T1-Gd volume. The concordance between predicted (virtual) and actual survivals suggests that the mathematical model is realistic enough to allow precise definition of the effectiveness of individualised treatments and their site(s) of action on proliferation (ρ) and/or dispersal (D) of the tumour cells without knowledge of any other clinical or pathological information.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)113-119
Number of pages7
JournalBritish Journal of Cancer
Volume98
Issue number1
DOIs
StatePublished - Jan 15 2008
Externally publishedYes

Fingerprint

Glioblastoma
Survival
Neoplasms
Theoretical Models
Gadolinium
Growth
Biopsy

Keywords

  • Glioblastoma
  • Invasion
  • Mathematical model
  • MRI
  • Proliferation
  • Resection

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Cancer Research
  • Oncology

Cite this

A mathematical modelling tool for predicting survival of individual patients following resection of glioblastoma : A proof of principle. / Swanson, Kristin; Rostomily, R. C.; Alvord, E. C.

In: British Journal of Cancer, Vol. 98, No. 1, 15.01.2008, p. 113-119.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

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